winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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RGEM just came in a little colder too. Hopefully we can pull off a few inches here.
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I've heard it used many times. I thought it was slang, but I just looked it up and it appears that it actually is real word for a small amount... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tick
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LOL. I think it's slang for just a slight amount.
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The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder.
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So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time.
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UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation.
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Rain changing to snow with borderline temps. 12z NAM and RGEM would be maybe an inch for the NYC area, with 2 to 3 to the north and west. Snow will be falling saturday morning but it doesn't look impressive right now. Hopefully it will trend a little better over the next couple days.
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12z Euro warm with the early next week storm. Rain on this run, but as Allsnow said the main thing is we have a couple threats to track.
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Euro looks very similar to the CMC with the friday night snow. Only a little over 3 days away, so it looks as if we have a legitimate threat here.
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A couple inches of snow for us friday night on the CMC. Have to be a little skeptical with the borderline temps, but it helps that it happens at night. We have a shot.
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1.5" here on colder surfaces. Extremely heavy snow 2:30 in the morning -- HUGE flakes. It didn't stick to pavement, but yeah a beautiful postcard scene this morning with the trees and bushes coated with the wet snow. Nice little event.
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Also people aren't gonna be as excited about GFS showing a big hit since it's such a terrible model. Euro or CMC showing a big hit would get people more excited. No question there is significant potential though. Mid March has looked good for awhile, and I think there's a decent chance that one of the threats will pan out.
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Rain-sleet mix here right now. Temp has dropped to 40. HRRR still saying we're gonna get a couple inches here tonight, but no question some accumulation will be lost due to these temps. I'll be happy if we can pull off an inch on colder surfaces tonight.
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18z NAM has the solid band of snow going right across the middle of the area, like the HRRR and EURO. Nice to have an event trending our way at the last minute for a change this winter.
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12z Euro looks like HRRR. Has the narrow band of snow going right across our area. Dries it out some as it moves east, but holds it together enough that we'd get 2 to 3 inches here. This is definitely starting to look more interesting.
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RGEM finally starting to show a little bit. Just a dusting to half inch for central NJ, but it's starting to catch on. NAM not surprisingly did lower amounts on the 12z run and has a light event now. Can hope HRRR is correct about getting a little more, but I doubt it. We'll be coming off warm temps this afternoon and it will take awhile for temps to get down close to freezing when the snow is falling late tonight. I would think we're looking at just a coating to an inch on colder surfaces.
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UKMET and Euro now have the narrow band of snow going across central NJ, but unlike the NAM they have light amounts (coating to 2 inches). If this happens I doubt it would be significant amounts like the NAM is showing. The NAM is probably just being its usual crazy terrible self. The other models look more reasonable with light amounts, and it could miss to the south.
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And yet the RGEM still has nothing. Really a strange situation to have one model showing 6 inch snows going across central NJ while another has absolutely nothing. HRRR kind of in the middle with a light snow event. Crazy to have a huge spread like this 24 hours before a potential event. It's hard for me to believe in an event when the RGEM isn't on board, since that model has been so good. I'm guessing the snowier models will be wrong, but you never know for sure. I'd love to see some snow tomorrow night.
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12z Euro is rain for us next weekend. The 12z models didn't produce for us, but you can see the potential and a long way to go.
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The chance of getting a snowstorm drops dramatically after mid March though. Very important that we cash in over the next couple weeks. I'm optimistic with the pattern looking so favorable, but obviously it isn't great that the Euro is showing a big cutter next weekend. Hopefully it's off and the other models have the right idea.
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Too early to get excited since it's fantasy range, but it's good to see that there's major potential.
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I doubt it, but we can hope for beautiful 70 degree weather late in the month. But give me snow in early to mid March.
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Yeah last night was nice, but we need a REAL snowstorm. I like the look for the 2nd week of March. Hopefully it will deliver.
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Yeah the 12z Euro is a big rainstorm. Maybe a little front end snow to the north and west. Even if we get a little bit of front end snow-sleet with this one, it would quickly get washed away by a lot of rain (unlike last night's event). So Friday doesn't look interesting at all. Looks as if it's gonna be awhile before we have something interesting to track. As you said, hopefully the expected colder pattern coming in for the 2nd week of March will deliver for us.
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1.8" here. Precip picking up but still a mix, so yeah it appears we're done with accumulation. Too bad the warming is moving in so quickly. I thought we'd get 2 to 3, so barely the low end of the prediction. No shoveling in the morning as it's already melting off the pavement. At least it was nice to look at tonight.
