winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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It's gonna be really close for you. Looks as if that storm will clip me here in the extreme northern part of the county, but not sure it will get down to you. Very close call.
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Yeah it does look good for our area. That storm moving into Somerset is sinking enough to the south. I'm excited.
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I see another cell just popped up behind that storm. Also watching the activity a little further to the south that will be moving into southern Hunterdon. That could make it to Middlesex as well, but might miss just to our south. Hopefully it won't be a case of storms missing just a few miles to the north and few miles to the south, but we'll see. It's going to be close.
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That warned cell in Hunterdon is going to be close for our area. Definitely has a little bit of a southerly component to it. It might get down to northern Middlesex ... keeping my fingers crossed.
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Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks. Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee.
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Yep that's correct.
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Yeah it's a very close call whether our area will clear out. Northern NJ clearing out but central NJ looks to stay pretty cloudy. We're near the edge.
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It's annoying how wildly inconsistent the HRRR is.
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It does feel strange to have such a big severe weather threat on day that's completely overcast. Hopefully it won't hurt chances for our area.
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I picked up 0.24" last night. Was happy to get that to water the garden just in case this afternoon doesn't work out, but the threat looks very good. The one thing we have going against us is it's cloudy, but obviously we still have a ton of fuel for the storms. Hopefully we'll see something nice.
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It weakened, but at least light to moderate rain is falling again. Pretty similar to the first round, so it'll probably be another tenth to quarter of an inch. Enough to water the garden between these 2 rounds tonight, but hopefully we'll get a strong storm during the afternoon/evening that gives us much more significant rain.
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Looks as if some areas in central and northern Jersey could get a quarter to half inch out of it.
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Mostly light but was on the moderate side for a little while. I got 0.11" from that line of showers. Radar in PA looks decent to me. Hopefully it'll hold together and be a decent batch of rain for our area. Maybe we can pick up around a quarter inch from that batch.
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Hopefully we can make that 2 years in a row of your party being interrupted, although I'm sure part of you doesn't want that to happen. Nice to see storms, but bad timing to have it happen during an event.
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Man I hope not. As you said we really need the rain. To me the timing of the front tomorrow doesn't look so early that we have to worry about the storms forming too late for our area, but I know there have been some model runs showing the storms forming to the south and east. I hope we don't get screwed.
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I'm excited about tomorrow's severe threat. Dew points in the mid 70s ... talk about fuel for the storms. In the meantime I hope we get some rain tonight, but that seems very questionable. Both NAM models don't like tonight, but HRRR and RGEM are more optimistic. We'll see.
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The extremely low humidity is what's the big deal. The dewpoint is 41 here right now! About as low as it gets for this time of year. Sunshine with a high near 80 this afternoon. A top 10 day of the year. I hope everyone can get outside and enjoy it. Early next week looks great too, but I wish that timing could have happened for the holiday. Instead by the 4th it will be hot and humid with a t-storm chance. Hopefully it will just be isolated storms so that cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most people, but obviously we have a long way to go on that. We need more rain so I'm hoping we get hit Saturday night and Sunday. Looks like pretty good heavy rain potential.
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Too bad the first round mostly missed to the north, but I did get 0.88" between the 2 rounds. Pretty good. The situation has gotten a little better with 2 pretty good rain events here in the last week, but obviously we need more rain. Hopefully Saturday night into Sunday.
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Deluge is right. I got 0.55" in a 10 minute period with that line. It came down in buckets. This ended up being a pretty good event. Much-needed rain.
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Pouring. With this round I'm probably gonna get more than the .28 I got from the storms earlier in the evening. Glad the garden is getting a good soaking.
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Not bad. I was just barely on the edge of the first cell, so the downpour was very brief. But then more cells developed as the line extended south a bit, so I got another downpour. Lasted a little longer but it weakened as it was hitting me. Pretty good downpour though. I got .28" from these storms. The wind (some gusts around 40mph) was more impressive than the rain, but at least it was enough to water the garden. Hopefully we'll get more from the expected overnight batch of rain.
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Thankfully I'm just catching the southern edge of it. Very strong winds gusts and a heavy downpour.
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I hope so. It's gonna be very close. Don't know if I'm gonna get the southern edge of it. That first downpour missed me by a mile ... just some sprinkles here.
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That sucks. I'm gonna be right near the edge of it was well. Might miss me by a mile or two. I can hear the thunder to the west.
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Yep but that 18z run of HRRR does hit our area with an inch of rain. 18z 3km NAM does as well. Like I said I don't like the late timing of this event as it will limit severe potential, but hopefully we'll get heavy rain out of it.
