From what some are saying with this run the euro just misses a full phase. Hence lower totals.
To me, every model is keying in on one thing over another. One run it’s the PV strength and location. Another is southern vort. The timing and spacing all have subtle difference which have bigger implications downstream. Overall there is consensus for a region wide 6” event. Upsides are 15”. The max top end could be 20”.
Anyone thinking this is a 20” and ONLY 20” storm is fucking stupid