ILSNOW

Precip map liking Alek

12Z GEFS

12z RGEM

and 84

ouch

The 0z GEFS is actually a better run for N IL then the 18z. 0z And the 18z run

Most of these ensembles are great hits for N IL thru 126 (especially #20)

GFS total precip

GDPS 10:1

Thanks

Chicago can you/are you allowed to post the map? thanks

6z GEFS run

GEFS has some big hits and some total misses.

Would be a Christmas snow to remember !!!

10 days out may be our best shot at white christmas

In Williamstown, New York, which is about 25 miles northeast of Syracuse, 24 inches of snow was measured on Friday morning. In Hamburg, New York, which is about 12 miles south of Buffalo, 22.5 inches of snow was measured at one weather station Friday morning. Snowfall rates of 5 inches per hour were reported in Hamburg. According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski, the weather station in Hamburg recorded 2.5 inches in 30 minutes on Friday morning. In Orchard Park, which is where the Buffalo Bills football stadium is located, 18.5 inches of snow was measured Friday morning. Snowfall totals at the weather station located at Buffalo Niagara International Airport, 12.5 inches of snow has fallen.

Just your normal 70 inch lake effect snow event

First flakes of the season are flying

Chicago NWS .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Concerns continue to focus on the best timing of possible significant severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this afternoon into early this evening. A couple of MCV`s, with ongoing convection are present to our west-northwest. The first is located over northeastern IA, with another one farther northwest into MN. Concerns are that the extensive convection over southern MN into northeastern IA in association with these features will mature into one or two east- southeastward forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon into early evening as surface warm front (and the strongly unstable airmass to its south) shifts northward into parts of northern IL and northwestern IN. The airmass within and near the warm sector is already extremely unstable thanks to hot and humid surface conditions (temperatures into the 80s amidst dew points well into the 70s). In fact, MUCAPE was already calculated at nearly 6,000 J/KG on the 12z KILX RAOB, with mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8.5C per km in the EML. The instability gradient is expected to set up right over northern IL and southern WI into Lower Michigan this afternoon, and will essentially offer the pathway for any forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon. However, exactly where any MCS will propagate remains uncertain and will be tied to *when* the system develops. An earlier development over far western Wisconsin would place our area in the crosshairs, while a later development over eastern Wisconsin would favor a path entirely outside our area and in Lower Michigan. At any rate, the MCS will have the potential to produce significant severe winds in excess of 75 mph given the very impressive thermodyamics. Moreover, deep layer shear is expected to be enhanced this afternoon as a 50+ kt enhanced mid- level jet along the southern periphery of the MCVs shifts overhead. Accordingly the threat for damaging hail and tornadoes would exist, as well. And, not to be forgotten, torrential downpours will also accompany these storms given PWATs at or just above 2". It appears the main window of severe threat for the area will be after 2 or 3 pm this afternoon through 7 or 8 pm this evening. KJB

pretty clear that the 18z NAM is the only model that has a handle on this (joking)

X marks the spot

Yep the radar does luck awful

point n click for Buffalo Grove Thursday Night Snow. Low around 22. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

FV3 for $100 please

FV3 to the rescue