ILSNOW

0z Euro snow map thru 2/11 for the entire US. It looks like a late march/early April map.

Looking forward to our 72 hour cold snap in late March/early April when we get 4-6 inches of wet snow that only accumulates on the grass and then melts 3 hours later. Got 5 inches on Saturday and saw snow during the day for first time in a long time. this winter suxs!!!!

Yep the heavy stuff just started here.

Chicago NWS upped amounts for the northern tier but still under WWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 ILZ003>006-290100- /O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230129T0900Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, and Gurnee 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Accumulating snow, heavy at times, and hazardous travel expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 ILZ006-013-103-104-250415- /O.EXB.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.230125T0900Z-230126T0300Z/ Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook- Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, and La Grange 213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Slippery travel due to falling snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. * WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook and Central Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday.

Who took the Euro Hostage?

0z HRRR Indiana looking good

18z Euro

I remember a time when we would get that last second NW move or a storm over performing where have those days gone.

12z Euro total snow Chicago maxes out at 1 inch

Eastern IA and N western IL do ok as well

Are you talking 23 or 24!!!

Chance of verifying .000001

Ricky While this system is at a range (around day 5) in which fairly large run to run variability is common, the 12z 1/14 global operational models were in pretty good agreement in the big picture details of the synoptic pattern and the entire area seeing precipitation starting Wednesday night into early Thursday. Since a distinct majority of ensemble members also indicate a favorable storm track to spread precip. across the area, continue to feel comfortable with the likely PoPs offered by the NBM. A strong enough synoptic system (which is currently favored at this vantage point), in addition to good large scale ascent, can be expected to draw a plume of well above normal PWATs northward. Thus regardless of precipitation type, a solid precip. producer for this time of year remains in the offing. The antecedent air mass will be marginally but sufficiently cold for wet snow, particularly for locales near and north of I-80. The exact track and strength of the low will determine how much of the area will see accumulating snow, with overall probabilities higher the farther north you go per most recent model and ensemble member and mean progs. The high PWATs and mixing ratios, plus the aforementioned strong large scale forcing are a concern for moderate to heavy snow rates. In summary, the threat for impactful winter weather in the form of heavy/wet accumulating snow for at least portions of the area has continued to tick upward, again with important caveats of this being about 5 days out. Stay tuned to later forecast updates for the Wednesday night-Thursday period. A colder (though not exceptionally cold for late January) and active pattern looks to continue heading into late January per solid ensemble consistency out in the medium-long range.

12z GF says yes

question have we ever had a JAN with under 1 inch?

Something to track for the Chicago crew before the non thread the needle event.

Another Rainer

0z GFS trying to make things interesting

Minneapolis hasn’t had snow in 48 hours they are due!!

Awesome storm for you!!!!! I just measured a .1 of inch of snow overnite !!!!!

Looking forward to mid to late January when we have another chance of 5-6 days of actual winter.

Chicago NWS Izzi Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Blizzard expected Thursday night into Friday... Wednesday through Monday... * Travel impacts expected to begin Thursday, mainly western CWA * Rapidly deteriorating conditions Thursday evening as a ferocious arctic front rips across the area resulting in temperatures rapidly falling through the teens into the single digits * Blizzard conditions will develop Thursday night, especially late, and continue through the day Friday * Bitterly cold wind chills expected during the height of the storm, posing a significant threat to life for anyone who becomes stranded in the storm After extensive collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, have opted to hoist a long lead time winter storm watch for blizzard conditions Thursday night through Friday night. Models and their respective ensembles have remained locked into solutions depicting rapid cyclogenesis Thursday into Friday as the cyclone tracks from southern IL to lower Michigan. Various models depict explosive deepening of this low with central pressure dropping 25-35mb in 24 hours. This type of explosive intensification is quite rare in this region and is expected to result in extremely powerful and potentially damaging winds late Thursday night and especially Friday. The deformation band with this cyclone is expected to be quite intense owing to the extremely strong omega and weak static stability/slantwise instability. Very steep mid-upper level lapse rates do raise concerns about the potential for thundersnow even later Thursday night into Friday morning. Expecting snow to liquid ratios to average around 15:1, possibly 20:1 western CWA where DGZ will be deeper. The one factor that *should* keep the snow:liquid ratios somewhat in check is the very strong winds which would tend to rip about the larger/fluffier dendrites. Have seen some general downward trend in QPF values over the past 24 hours in guidance, but QPF generally still supports widespread 6" totals with even 1-2 foot totals possible associated with any more intense banding/possible thundersnow. We are still very far out and not planning to advertise snowfall amounts in public products at this time, as much could change between now and then. It is also worth stressing that the amount of snow that falls is a secondary or tertiary concern among the hazards. The expected temperatures will leave this snow extremely susceptible to blowing around and even if only a couple inches of snow falls, a blizzard would still be likely given the nature of the snow and magnitude of the strong winds. This is one of the reasons for the early winter storm watch. Impactful winter weather, in the form of accumulating snow is expected to begin in the western portions of the CWA during the day Thursday. However, opted not to include this portion of the storm in the winter storm watch as the threat level of this snow will dwarf what will be expected during the blizzard portion of the storm. If current guidance is close to verifying, then conditions Friday could rival the 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard, particularly in open areas. Travel would become extremely dangerous and life threatening, particularly in light of the bitterly cold temperatures during the height of the storm. Falling snow is expected to end Friday afternoon or evening, but strong winds and blizzard conditions are expected to continue Friday evening and only slowly abate through the night. Some blowing snow will likely continue into Saturday with bitterly cold temperatures through the holiday weekend. - Izzi