ILSNOW

earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri (again). Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure). So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March.

yes this big "active" pattern change was not much (4-5 inches on ground from Wednesday and last night) this weekend is a miss east and midweek is a miss south.

In the category of it will never happen the 12Z UKMET tries to get ALEK close to his seasonal norms. Enjoy

Solid 2 inches here and done prolly have 5 inches from the 2” storms” actually looks like winter. Suxs that we got teased for 1 model run yesterday that we actually had a chance at a snowstorm, hope you guys to the east get hammered.

Roger, Chicago 7-8 inches????

Good luck Detroit

GEFS mean precip

ICON east

18z Euro

18z Euro

ICON t RGEM is an unbeatable combo just like the EURO and ETA were back in the day. lock it in!!!!!!!

It’s pretty clear to me that the 18z RGEM is the only model that has a grasp on the Friday/Saturday storm!/s

Snow has started here in Buffalo Grove.

ouch and Milwaukee just went WSW for Racine: WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 9 inches. Lake effect snow may bring locally higher totals.

12z Euro bring the Saturday storm back into the picture.

snippet from Milw Initially, dry Arctic air lingering at the surface will prevent snowfall from reaching the ground. However, by mid-morning Wednesday, expect boundary layer to saturate and steady snowfall to begin. Rates in the initial band will likely be in the 0.25-0.50 inch per hour range as it will primarily be driven by WAA in the 700-500 mb layer. That being said, high ratio snowfall is possible as the WAA actually nudges more of the column into the dendritic growth zone. The highest rates develop during the afternoon as low pressure begins to lift northward, WAA in the mid-levels is enhanced, and convergence off Lake Michigan begins to shift inland with a higher fetch. Rates up to 1 inch per hour are possible during this time frame, especially in the Milwaukee to Kenosha corridor

12z UKMET really focuses on the possible lake enhancement.

Thinking Chicago NWS would like to go with WWA instead of WSW for the entire area.

12z NAM depiction of ALEK duster

In ICON we trust

0z NAM

18Z Euro slightly drier

and Milwaukee In addition to storm track and strength, there are a couple of other uncertainties associated with Wednesday`s system. First, as east to northeast winds become better focused early Wednesday, and winds then turn more northerly during the day, lake enhanced snow is possible for locations near Lake Michigan, particularly from Milwaukee south toward Chicago. This could result in higher totals for this area. Second, SLRs look to be above average for much of this event, meaning this should be a dry and fairly fluffy snow. However, several factors have to come together just right to generate these higher SLRs, so any deviation could result in lower snow amounts. For now kept SLRs around 15:1 for this event, which is above climatology of 12:1, but lower than what some guidance is showing (closer to 20:1).