ILSNOW

12z Euro bring the Saturday storm back into the picture.

snippet from Milw Initially, dry Arctic air lingering at the surface will prevent snowfall from reaching the ground. However, by mid-morning Wednesday, expect boundary layer to saturate and steady snowfall to begin. Rates in the initial band will likely be in the 0.25-0.50 inch per hour range as it will primarily be driven by WAA in the 700-500 mb layer. That being said, high ratio snowfall is possible as the WAA actually nudges more of the column into the dendritic growth zone. The highest rates develop during the afternoon as low pressure begins to lift northward, WAA in the mid-levels is enhanced, and convergence off Lake Michigan begins to shift inland with a higher fetch. Rates up to 1 inch per hour are possible during this time frame, especially in the Milwaukee to Kenosha corridor

12z UKMET really focuses on the possible lake enhancement.

Thinking Chicago NWS would like to go with WWA instead of WSW for the entire area.

12z NAM depiction of ALEK duster

In ICON we trust

0z NAM

18Z Euro slightly drier

and Milwaukee In addition to storm track and strength, there are a couple of other uncertainties associated with Wednesday`s system. First, as east to northeast winds become better focused early Wednesday, and winds then turn more northerly during the day, lake enhanced snow is possible for locations near Lake Michigan, particularly from Milwaukee south toward Chicago. This could result in higher totals for this area. Second, SLRs look to be above average for much of this event, meaning this should be a dry and fairly fluffy snow. However, several factors have to come together just right to generate these higher SLRs, so any deviation could result in lower snow amounts. For now kept SLRs around 15:1 for this event, which is above climatology of 12:1, but lower than what some guidance is showing (closer to 20:1).

Izzi Unfortunately, as far as amounts go, there remains uncertainty in regards to specific totals. The uncertainty is driven largely by the questions in regards to the snow:liquid ratios (SLRs), with climo for southwest originating storms and the Cobb method both favoring SLRs closer to 10 to 11:1. NBM guidance is substantially higher, closer to 14-18:1, highest northwest CWA. For this forecast have split the difference between the 2 extremes, though forecast soundings (particularly in the warmer NAM) show a fairly deep isothermal layer closer to the -5C with the heavier precip, which would tend to favor more aggregates and lower SLRs.

12z GEM going all in totals for BOTH storms

12Z GEFS total for run

0z GFS

Alek ICON still hot.

Could you please expand on your thoughts for the upcoming pattern

wait 12 hours

prolly make you final call now DAB!!!

yep for 24 hours there it looked like we were entering our standard 7-10 days of winter.

agreed hope to get some snow from the saturday system.

Chicago NWS Taken altogether, this leads to an expectation for highly variable ice accumulation amounts across our area, ranging from a few hundredths near the Wisconsin state line to perhaps locally 0.25 to 0.33" in the wake of convective cores (near/south of the I-88 corridor?). Regardless of the eventual uneven ice amounts, we will have to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for some if not all of our area for the Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning timeframe for hazardous travel conditions, downed tree limbs, and localized power outages.

12z Euro ICE

I will take the 12z Euro!

Remember when we anxiously waited for the 0z NAM to see where the first model run was indicating for the snowstorm coming the following day?

Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more