ILSNOW

I agree the GEM is a dumpster fire model. Long live the King (GFS)

12z GFS if only (prolly an MSP special) and the GEM which is slightly different

GFS on its own chance of verifying 0.000000001

Now ??

32/30 here in Buffalo Grove with light freezing rain trees are icing up quickly

0z NAM is ugly

18z Euro FRAM

KLOT discussion by RC

KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory ILZ003>006-220500- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, and Gurnee 300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties.

18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe)

Milwaukee Ice Storm Warning doe SE Wisc ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

LOT aviation A sharp temperature gradient will be present across the region tomorrow. Temperatures at most of our TAF sites are expected to remain above freezing throughout the day tomorrow, which will mean that the only precipitation that will be seen at these sites should be a cold, soaking rainfall. RFD, however, may be an exception to this as surface temperatures may end up being just below freezing during at least part of the day there. With a deep layer of above freezing air aloft likely to melt all hydrometeors prior to them reaching the surface, the below freezing temperatures at ground level should thus support a period of freezing rain at RFD tomorrow, though exactly how long this period will last and how efficiently ice will accrete on various surfaces remains uncertain due to surface temperatures teetering precariously close to 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the expected heavier rainfall rates. Some model guidance is also suggesting that ORD may end up right on the fringes of the accumulating freezing rain footprint, but currently think that temperatures at ORD will remain just above freezing and result in the freezing rain remaining just north of the ORD airfield.

Gotta believe that LOT goes Winter Storm watch for counties adjacent to Wisconsin with Winter weather advisory of Lake Co IL. 12z Euro agrees

I know that it prolly means nothing but lets welcome the 12z NAM to the cold side

My question is when does winter start?

18z Euro ice

12z Euro slightly warmer and cuts ice totals in chicago area in 1/2

Hoping this is wrong as RC pointed out the model has fake snow on the ground which should/will affect the temps.

GFS remains icy

18z Euro ice

why is there a big difference between the 2 ?

scary ice numbers over Michigan

corrected

corrected to read 84 hrs agree here is the sounding for the area that it paints 8 inches of snow (soundings indicate freezing rain)