ILSNOW

18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe)

Milwaukee Ice Storm Warning doe SE Wisc ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

LOT aviation A sharp temperature gradient will be present across the region tomorrow. Temperatures at most of our TAF sites are expected to remain above freezing throughout the day tomorrow, which will mean that the only precipitation that will be seen at these sites should be a cold, soaking rainfall. RFD, however, may be an exception to this as surface temperatures may end up being just below freezing during at least part of the day there. With a deep layer of above freezing air aloft likely to melt all hydrometeors prior to them reaching the surface, the below freezing temperatures at ground level should thus support a period of freezing rain at RFD tomorrow, though exactly how long this period will last and how efficiently ice will accrete on various surfaces remains uncertain due to surface temperatures teetering precariously close to 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the expected heavier rainfall rates. Some model guidance is also suggesting that ORD may end up right on the fringes of the accumulating freezing rain footprint, but currently think that temperatures at ORD will remain just above freezing and result in the freezing rain remaining just north of the ORD airfield.

Gotta believe that LOT goes Winter Storm watch for counties adjacent to Wisconsin with Winter weather advisory of Lake Co IL. 12z Euro agrees

I know that it prolly means nothing but lets welcome the 12z NAM to the cold side

My question is when does winter start?

18z Euro ice

12z Euro slightly warmer and cuts ice totals in chicago area in 1/2

Hoping this is wrong as RC pointed out the model has fake snow on the ground which should/will affect the temps.

GFS remains icy

18z Euro ice

why is there a big difference between the 2 ?

scary ice numbers over Michigan

corrected

corrected to read 84 hrs agree here is the sounding for the area that it paints 8 inches of snow (soundings indicate freezing rain)

12z UKMET is much colder than other models

12z Euro (way to early) agrees with you ice comment

snow has gone over to pingers

snow in Buffalo Grove

Defer to Ricky above. 0z HRRR comes in hot .

from Milwaukee using the "B" word WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, highest amounts near the lake. Winds gusting as high as 35 to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard conditions in the afternoon and early evening. * WHERE...Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties.

18z NAM steroids

Slight change from 18z

wow!!! thats a big number ILZ003>005-008-150400- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0001.230216T0900Z-230217T0300Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Rochelle, Oregon, and Byron 154 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible, along with some minor ice accumulations. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Ogle Counties. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slick, snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions are likely to impact both the morning and evening commutes on Thursday.