ILSNOW

12z NAM is liking Hoosier

18z Euro still has Tuesday N IL "snowstorm"

Great Izzi writeup (excerpts) Textbook La Nina pattern in place across the country and likely to continue through the long term period with a powerhouse jet stream, progged at times to exceed 200kt at 250 mb, separating record breaking cold over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada from record heat over the southeastern U.S. Over the past week or so long and then medium range models have been advertising a gradual southward shift of the jet stream and storm track, placing our area under the gun for more active, and potentially wintry weather, during the long term period. The timing differences among the various models have shrunk considerably with precip expected to move into southern CWA shortly after 12z Tuesday and then spread quickly north, likely reaching the IL/WI border by around 18z. Unfortunately there remain meaningful differences in thermal profiles Tuesday, with the GEM and NAM both on the warm end of the spectrum and the ECMWF on the cold end with the GFS sandwiched between. In the GEM/NAM scenario, a brief period of wintry mix would quickly change to all rain with little or no accumulation. The ECMWF holds onto a deeper cold air mass longer and allows for a period of accumulating snow Tuesday roughly north of I-80 with the most significant accums north of I-90. Conceptually, a weakening/filling surface low would be less effective in dislodging low level cold air, which would lend a bit of credence to the EMCWF solution suggesting a quick couple inches of snow will accumulate, mainly northwest of I-90 Tuesday. The hyper active, La Nina fueled Pacific jet is progged by medium range guidance, which is in remarkably good agreement at this distance, to develop a classic Panhandle to lower Great Lakes strong storm late Friday into Saturday. If this system materializes as advertised, it would have the potential to produce a significant winter storm with heavy snow and strong winds Friday night into Saturday somewhere in the Midwest. Our area is certainly in the "cone of uncertainty" with this system and it will bear close watching over coming days. It`s worth noting that at this time range it isn`t the slightest bit uncommon for there to be dramatic changes in model guidance in both the track and strength of a potential storm systems, so it is way too early to place any stock in any particular model`s current forecast track or intensity, let alone their snowfall output. The primary message this distance is: stay tuned, it could get messy next weekend somewhere in the region.

Watching the bears play Seattle in the snow when we have had none is unbelievable

Excellent point in fact the 12z GFS still has the storm but it has a gone from a snowstorm (0z) to a rainmaker 12z. But good thing is a still has a decent storm in that time frame giving us something to track at least for now.

18z Euro for Tuesday snowstorm

12Z Euro with a full fledged snowstorm in N IL!!!

I get what your saying and would love for it to be correct but this is yesterdays 12z GFS. Cyclone lost 20 inches in 24 hours.

Looking forward to our 2 weeks of winter in late January

18z GFS bringing the goods for saturday!!!!

Christmas Eve 240 hr Euro

12z Euro to the rescue

Just saw 3 flakes so well on the way to meeting seasonal averages!!!

January is gonna rock

awesome hit for cyclone!!!! Only 11 GFS days away!!!!!

KLOT update UPDATE... 1157 AM CDT Showers and thunderstorms have begun to expand in coverage across wester central into north-central Illinois. In collaboration with DVN, we have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to the remaining forecast area. Latest radar mosaic shows the corridor of developing activity to be better focused toward the western sections of the area. Morning DVN and ILX soundings show precipitable water values of greater than 1.8 inches with latest RAP analysis shifting this a bit westward. While far northern and northwestern areas have seen less rainfall in recent days, the efficient precip production and potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms thought that expanding the watch was prudent. Do not think that the threat has changed much for the original watch area as high water already exists and showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop. MDB

Getting pounded last 1/2 hour here in buffalo grove and have the neighbors kids swimming in a newly created lake in my backyard

no kidding thru Tuesday

You are correct we got 0.00 here!!!

Euro

12z NAM very different then Euro and GFS

Euro gets it down to 982