ILSNOW

For my area last 4 runs. What a crap model!!! Oz 1.5 6z 1.0 12z 6.4 18z 9.0

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

and it is being weighed down by 5 members at 2 inches. Also it has 11 members between 8.5 and 13.5 inches.

Even the ICON is coming on board

12z RGEM liking ALEK

dont forget these are 10:1 ratios

YEP yep 12z 0z

Nice snow desert for chicagoland on 18z NAM LOL!!!

'

12z RGEM based off this run the northern suburbs are out!!!! It is possible that the northern suburbs might miss out but throwing in the towel based off of the 84hr NAM is crazy. I believe the system will be entering the west coast overnight and we still have 48 hours of model runs to get thru and you dont want to be in the bullseye now.

GEM 12Z GEM 0z

12z EURO

Ripped for about 45 minutes. Nice to see again I miss the old days when it would snow like this for hours.

Moderate snow just started here

I was looking at the GDSP 198 hour map. And if you want to compare 2 different models you might want to look at them for the same time period.

Canadian agrees with that statement.

and this beauty 10 days out . Sad having to post 10 day snow maps in mid Jan.

RGEM and this

Cotton like white substance is starting to mix in here.

15Z RAP Ice Snow

12Z HRRR

Chicago NWS Attention then turns quickly to that closed upper circulation to our southwest Thursday evening. Models remain in pretty good agreement in giving the short wave a negative-tilt orientation and pivoting it north-northeastward Thursday night. Precipitation is expected to develop and spread back north into the forecast area especially after midnight, as substantial warm/moist advection produces forced ascent and nudges the baroclinic zone associated with the old cold front to our south back into the area. Sub- freezing surface temperatures, reinforced by cool east-northeast flow from the retreating high to our north, will set the stage for a period of primarily freezing rain and sleet overnight into Friday morning (with some snow possible far north/northwest) as temperatures aloft rise above 0C. This is well-depicted in forecast soundings, which indicate a substantial warm layer centered around 850 mb, where temps warm from roughly +2 to +6 C (warmest south) by 12Z Friday. Surface temps are progged to slowly rise above freezing across the southeast half to two-thirds of the cwa through Friday afternoon as the surface low continues to lift toward the area, with decent model agreement that it eventually tracks somewhere near the southern end of Lake Michigan early Friday evening. With a plume of Gulf moisture allowing for model QPF of 0.25-0.50 inches or more across the area through midday Friday, the concern is that there could be some significant ice accumulation prior to freezing rain changing over to rain when temps warm above freezing, with our northwest counties across north central IL potentially seeing a mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain linger Friday afternoon. With the current track of the surface low, afternoon temps are expected to range from the low-mid 30s around Rockford, to around 40 in our southeast.