ILSNOW

18z NAM NEST is interesting it keeps what appears to lake effect going all day in Lake county before the main snows hit

NAM is now officially on on Snow Island there is no model even close to what its showing. Only question is does it just vanish next run or does it take several runs?

12z GFS and the 12Z NAM are slightly different

maybe a touch north with the heavier band.

was 18z EPS close to 12z EPS ?

KLOT update (not Ricky) unimpressed. But the combo of Angrysummons and A-L-E-K will be hard to keep down. Thursday through Tuesday... Continued cold conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period, including a reinforcing shot of even colder air for the late weekend into early next week. Multiple periods of snow also remain likely, though different portions of the forecast area are favored with each one, and nothing looks overly significant at least into early next week.

Kuchera ratios on the GEM are between 20-28:1 I think we will do ok

I know that its 84hr NAM but does this look bad?

Skilling said snow ratio was 48:1

Doesn’t look bad

Winter weather advisory issued as snow and chill are expected to continue in Chicago Monday and through the week By KATHERINE ROSENBERG-DOUGLAS CHICAGO TRIBUNE | FEB 08, 2021 AT 12:48 PM Sorry, Chicago, but the winter weather is only going to get worse this week before it gets better. Most of northern Illinois is facing an ongoing pattern of multiple snow events and single-digit air temperatures with wind chill values well below zero, said Ricky Castro, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Following a dusting of snow Monday morning and ahead of another potential 1 to 3 inches that could fall during the evening commute, he said not much will change with the cold and snowy forecast for the next week, at least, or possibly two. “Depending on the magnitude of the cold air mass that comes in, it could possibly get colder than it has been. It was quite cold (Sunday), it’s cold now and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change much in the next week or two,” he said. “Realistically, it could certainly get even worse, depending on how things shape up this weekend.” Forecasters Monday morning issued a winter weather advisory for a looming storm that could add another 1 to 3 inches of snow during the evening commute, Castro said. “We’ve been forecasting snow accumulations, but we’re just a little more concerned now and decided to go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory to heighten the awareness for people that don’t work from home and will commute home later,” he said. The amount of snow that could fall is not typically enough for the weather service to issue an advisory, “but it’s just that the timing is right for it, it’s going to be snowing still during the commute. And with how cold it is, the roads are probably going to be pretty rough.” Castro said the typical mitigation techniques used by the city and state to keep roads clear, such as plows and salt trucks, are not as effective when the temperature is as low as it was around midday, when the city’s official weather recording station logged 11 degrees at O’Hare International Airport, 12 at Midway Airport and 13 near Lake Michigan. Salt lowers the freezing point for water on roads below 32 degrees. But when the air temperature is near zero, salt loses its efficacy in reducing the freezing point, he said. Overnight into Tuesday, he said, the wind chill, or feels-like temperature, could get as cold as 20 below. “At a certain point, it’s just not very useful,” Castro said about salting the roads. He expects Monday’s system to move in from the west and to begin dropping flakes on the metro area between 2 and 6 p.m., possibly a little earlier in the western suburbs. It will be the first of many opportunities for snow this week, Castro said. It could snow again Wednesday or Thursday, and a big snowstorm could move through the area again this weekend. “Essentially it just keeps on coming,” Castro said. “The pattern looks cold and active, in terms of snowfall, for the foreseeable future.”

Nice article in tonight’s tribune with Ricky as the star

Surprisingly been in the better snows for over an hour now

Enjoy folks!!!!

Nice I saw 3 flakes around 8:30.

84 hr NAM is trending our way!!! So much potential A-L-E-K and yes I know it’s in the wrong thread

12z GFS nice hit for C IL and IN with lake effect for A-L-E-K

seems to be a consensus between 12z NAM and GFS of a general 1-3 inch refresher area wide.

This one is fading away as well

KLOT thoughts for Monday Snow is likely to be ongoing across, at least southern portions of the area at the start of the period Sunday evening. This snow will likely overspread the rest of the area for Monday into Monday evening. Given the strength of the baroclinic zone across the area, we are likely to see some enhanced isentropic upglide and bands of lower level frontogenesis develop with each approaching mid-level impulse, and this should in turn support at least some locally heavier periods of snow, especially on Monday and Monday evening. A deep dendritic growth zone in this arctic airmass is also likely to support high snow ratios (possible in excess of 20 to 1 at times), and this should in turn support some notable snow accumulations through Monday evening. With this in mind, we will have to keep an eye on the snow amounts for this period, with advisory level snow amounts (2"-5") certainly looking probable.

inch or 2 inbound for us

12 z ukie

Ukie still has it just drier and its snowmaps are at 10:1 . We should be closer to 15:1 or 20:1 i would think

15z RAP south of 9z

12z GFS on board