ILSNOW

Quad Cities does not listen to the American Weather Board URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 243 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 ...Winter Storm Developing Monday through Tuesday Morning... .A powerful storm system will bring heavy snow, strong and gusty winds, mixed freezing rain and snow, and considerable blowing and drifting snow to the region through Tuesday morning. Snow and freezing rain will develop toward daybreak in far southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. Snow will slowly spread north through the day, reaching Interstate 80 and the Cedar Rapids to Quad Cities metro areas between 2 and 4 PM Monday afternoon. Farther north, after a mainly dry afternoon, snow will arrive towards the evening commute along Highway 20 in Iowa and Illinois. At this time, much of southeast Iowa and east central Iowa into northwest Illinois is at risk for seeing 6 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow, with considerable blowing and drifting snow Tuesday night. Locations in the far north will see less snow, in the 3 to 6 inch range, and in the far south, a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain will limit snow amounts to the 2 to 5 inch rang .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott- Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL- Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren- Including the cities of Dubuque, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, and Monmouth 243 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa and north central, northwest and west central Illinois. * WHEN...From noon Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

Somebody reach out to Ricky and tell him the American Weather board thinks that he should cxl the WSW. The KLOT area will prolly get 4-8 inches which we havent had in a long time and some are ready to cxl the storm. Folks we all want the snow and no its not going to be the big one advertised a few days ago, but maybe the drying on the models stops , maybe they get wetter again who knows lets see how it plays out.

lastest SREF Plume for ORD is down to 6.80 with only 1 member now below 5 with approx 9 members between 6 and 10.

Chicago Storm can you please post the 12z Euro Kuchera run if you have it? thanks

thanks i missed it

would love to know how much precip the 6z run of the Euro put out

GFS para (for whatever thats worth) appears to not minor out the snow as quickly. vs GFS

Isnt it the Confluence in S Canada/N Lakes/Northeast bouncing around north and south each model run thats causing the issues?

SREF Plumes mean at ORD is up to 8.5 with 5 or 6 clunkers and with 8 anywhere from 8.5 to 14.

They should go Winter Storm Watch chicago north and west for 6-10 inches in the morning. Hopefully RC will trim in.

Place to be is S central Iowa!!!!

I see the GEM out to 42 hrs

is the para any good?

Question for the Mets how can the GFS para spit out 1.5 inches of precip for Chicago while the GFS spits out 0.8? Arent they somewhat similar models?

and para GFS

from KLOT For snow totals, we`re still too far to reasonably push deterministic numbers far and wide, but the likelihood of over 4 inches for much of the area north of I-80 from Monday afternoon - Tuesday morning is fairly high. For 6-8 inches, that potential is there and hence why about one more shift of seeing that we will be ready for a Watch, but just how much of a footprint is still unknown, including northeast Illinois and especially far northwest Indiana. The snow type will be a wetter one, with ratios in the 7:1 to 10:1 possibly all the way through Monday night. Tuesday should see ratios inch slower up under cooling mid-level profiles. With northeast winds gusting to 30 mph Monday night (near 40 mph possible near the lake), this seems like it could be the character of event where wet snow is plastered on signs/stoplights/windows.

closeup for chicago folks

18Z GFS

KLOT brief update 325 PM CST Sunday Night through Saturday... A short AFD for now and then will send a more thorough one with the scientific details in a bit. The bottom line is that the message for Monday-Tuesday continues near similar, with some more honing in on details as possible. The potential for heavy snow is increasing for northern Illinois, it`s just how much of the area north of I-80 is favored and the duration of the snow into Tuesday, while the confidence in a mix for the southern CWA has also increased further. This still does not look like a significant ice event due to the character of the system, but at least minor icing is likely. For the area most favored for the heavy snow, at this time no Winter Storm Watch given still 48 hours from the heaviest snow and the uncertainties, but if trends continue, one will likely need to be issued in the next 12-18 hours. MTF