Jed33
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Everything posted by Jed33
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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.
Jed33 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I didn’t see anyone post the crazy Uncle Canuck today? It had light snow across the whole state early next week. It tried to bring in some ice/sleet in the east but the cold deepened just in time it looked like to keep it all snow. It’s the only model that I saw that had that solution today though. -
MEG added another county in N MS to the advisory. Lafayette Co. is now included. My sister lives in Oxford, she told me she was wondering if they would be added. Sure enough. Expecting up to a tenth of an inch of ZR there.
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I see Kmem is currently reporting 30 degrees dewpoint 29. Fog and mist. Looks like it’s about to get cranking there!
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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.
Jed33 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I definitely would enjoy a 12+ event here too, as I’ve never experienced one in my backyard. There have been some where I’ve lived, but during the time I’ve lived there, it just hasn’t worked out for me to experience it. Now that said, Memphis is probably overdue a big snowfall more than any other city in this state. I couldn’t tell you when the last 4in snow there was, and certainly not the last 6 or 12in snow was. I’d say you’d have to go back to 1988 to find a snow of greater than 6in for Memphis. It’s funny though, bc if you look at their records, 12in events used to happen even there about once every 10-20 years on average and sometimes, like in the 80’s it was even more common than that. Snowfall in general has been less than normal across the whole state, but it seems Memphis has suffered the most, followed by Nashville, then Chattanooga. The Eastern Valley has done better this year and really the past couple, but you’d have to go back to 2015 and 2016 to find the last good ones even here until the Christmas storm came around. -
This little event here melted faster than frosty flippin burgers on the 4th of July! Wow! We had just ever slightly more than an inch, but it literally started melting right when it quit and then the sun came out and it’s nothing but a memory. A good memory of ups and downs of tracking and scoring, even if it wasn’t as much as I was hoping far, it was still nice. Brings my seasonal total here to 10in. Nice to hit double digit snowfall (even if I did have to nickel and dime my way there) again for the first time in several several years!
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Have right at an inch now and still coming down pretty good
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Rippin big ol quarter to half dollar size flakes! Easily the heaviest rates of the night by a long shot!
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Moderate snow coming down now pretty good. Quarter sized flakes. Had apparently been in a lul for awhile as we just couldn’t get any heavy returns to pass overhead. At this rate maybe we will make it to an inch, but just not really sure.
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Had to get some sleep, but just woke up to see the ground turning white and snowing at a pretty good rate.
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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.
Jed33 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like a repeat of February-March 1960! -
Fwiw Euro seemed to have a big jump just now at 12z too. I can’t get kuchera ratios, but here’s the regular.
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My parents in Bham just told me they saw some snow flurries about an hour ago. They were definitely not expecting that
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Currently sleeting in Morristown. I see MRX had to do an update for a light wintry mix moving through this afternoon. Temperatures have been held way down today by a thick cloud deck that moved in after we had a low of 19 at the house this AM. Quite an unexpected surprise today.
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Right at an inch now. Looks so nice!- 195 replies
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I know man, it’s like after 3:30 the sun stopped having as much influence on the temperature and the banding that set up really cooled things off. Down to 29 now- 195 replies
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
What a difference 30-45min makes! I went from barely anything sticking to a yard that’s white! Got about 3/4in now- 195 replies
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man it’s just been pouring snow here for the last hour. It’s really too bad that the ground temp was just too warm bc I’ve been at or below 32 all day. It’s just the ground temp wouldn’t support more accumulation than 1/3-1/2in at a time.- 195 replies
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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.
Jed33 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wow, the other runs today were good, but this Euro run....this needs to go into the Hall of Fame! My goodness! -
East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It’s ripping here now with nickel to quarter size flakes!- 195 replies
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Moderate snow here now with probably 1/4-1/3in on cars and rooftops- 195 replies
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Light snow in Morristown- 195 replies
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Predicted high and low temps have been missing the mark quite a bit lately around here. Falling well below forecasted lows, as well as falling well short of high temp forecasts. Oddly enough though, I see that TRI has hit 51 today, and yesterday was quite a bit warmer than here, so they have been reaching forecasted high temps.
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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2
Jed33 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
WWA for Jefferson Co. north and east! Surprised they went with that so early. That lines up with the snowfall map.- 195 replies
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My in-laws live slightly north of Bristol VA, almost halfway between there and Abingdon. My mother in law said they had around 1/2in. They didn’t even know it had snowed, and wouldn’t if I hadn’t told them to go check on it, as no forecasts were calling for it. They always seem to do really well-they also have elevation going for them, as they live near the top of a ridge there at slightly over 2k feet
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I am at 32 dewpoint 31 now. Looks like the last little bit is moving through. Got a nice sleet/snow dusting that I wasn’t expecting, so that’s a win for sure! Looking back, the 12z Para GFS had this band as snow/sleet moving through. I dismissed it though bc I thought it was off it’s rocker with no real support from any other models.
