stadiumwave

SST's from Euro update for DJF:

DEC

JAN

FEB

Another look. Webb may have a meltdown because JAN/FEB is rocking! Typic warmish Nino DEC. 

DEC

JAN

FEB

FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee. 

Why does Eric never mention that the forcing is still much further west than you'd expect for an east based El Nino???

It's official! Eric Webb has canceled winter, so we a might as well spare ourselves, lol.

I hope it's a freakish cold/snow fest, not simply because I love it, but simply to hold it over Webb, lol. 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI

 

This is definitely a hybrid & does not fall into classical categories. The west warming keeps it from being classical east & my suspicion is that's one reason why this Nino has consistently wanted to keep the forcing further west.

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t have an issue with that. Bastardis AGW denial agenda is problematic and is a big reason why his forecasts have been busting too cold and snowy.

Really? Why would Eric allow Bastardi's calling for a cold winter every year bother him? Like, who cares. I like Eric but I've watched him be unnecessarily snarky to many. BTW, his issue with Bastardi is not so much his AGW views. 

58 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

He’s trolling ofc

He always does & its annoying! He has constant consternation aimed at Bastardi. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks good to me.

Yea, it's not bad. With the ENSO look I was expecting fantasy 500mb look, lol. 

CFS Weeklies, AO & NAO forecasts.

One thing to keep in mind with these seasonal forecasts. A lot can change in a month for sure.

Here's the October updates forecast for NOV:

Here's the NOV update for NOV:

Just a wee bit different.

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With aleutian troughing and western & arctic ridging, not much has changed. The general idea is pretty much the same

The ENSO looks further west to me than the October update. When I saw that I was expecting some spectacular 500mb. So, really you're correct. 

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update.

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better.

DEC is an improvement....

...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. 

MAR looks good. 

To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

Just saw this:

I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

Yea, I was so bummed last night when it did not update on tropical tidbits. I'm just mad today because it still has not, lol. 

On 10/29/2023 at 7:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Really good analysis! My conclusions are very similar. 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that dude seems unhinged. It's not like forecasting ENSO strength is a mature science with low uncertainty....I'm immediately skeptical of anyone who shows a LOT of confidence in it.

It's especially weird to portray so much confidence when we're about to have one of the larger 1 month busts in recent years on model guidance strength of an ENSO event. I don't follow him much on twitter, but I'm wondering if he ever put out any numbers on what he thought the strength of this would be by the end of October.

Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. 

 A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.

I don't know where to share this, so I'm sharing here in case it becomes useful:

https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.amp

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

..point out when and where he has been wrong...

I go back further with him than most on here, to a forum that no longer exists. I have no problem with him personally & he's a good forecaster in general. We've just always given him a hard time for SW bias. 

I was not trying to decapitate him, lol.

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is exactly what we've seen for the last decade

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to.

Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. 

I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors. 

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino / La Nina cycle itself is a cycle. A lot of research suggests that before the mid-1700s, there were hardly any El Ninos. Even in recent periods, you have a nine year gap from the 1930-31 El Nino to the 1939-40 El Nino. 

I'd be a bit nervous about the winter if I lived in the East though. This is nominally a -NAO, -AO, +PNA month on net, even with the big dips for the PNA at the start and end of the month. It's just much warmer for the East than those patterns imply, likely from the -PDO or the global ocean warmth.

We're "supposed to be" warm with the pattern this month in the West. Although we've got some cold and snowy days by Halloween out here. Models still have some snow for me.

+PNA, -NAO October...it's like...3-5 warmer in the East than the composite? Even without 2009 it's 1-3 warmer I'd reckon.

I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol. 

21 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 I know we have this westerly wind event going on, but after looking at all the data it doesn't seem to be having much effect on the SST's.  In fact it even appears there's been further warming in 3.4 in the last 15 days, And some further cooling in regions 1 and 2. So the effect may be minimal when all is said and done.

Last 15 days:

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

East based niños aren't cold typically here from what I remember 

Typically, east based El Ninos are warm east, cold west on average. But it's also worth noting there is variation in ENSO events; nothing is cookie cutter. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What is he implying? 

He expects the El Nino to strengthen &  Region 1 & 2 to warm again & Region 4 to cool, which would look more east based.

My thoughts: with that said the forcing has stayed west the entirety of this El Nino. So, if that stays the way the weather pattern will not function like a typical east-based El Nino, which is good. 

JAMSTEC updated...

2m Temps...all members mean

Precip

JAMSTEC does not produce a 500mb map. 

Also it uses 108 ensemble members that come from 3 groups. One of those 3 groups is really cold but is offset by one that is warm. One was unavailable.

Here's the group of members that were really cold, just for giggles: