stadiumwave

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This big model guidance shift occurred at a time when the Nino went through a period of more rapid strengthening…wonder if that was just a coincidence or related. 

Also noticed that the MJO forecasts all started shifting into the COD instead of propagating through phases 4/5. 
 

 

I truly think this year, this Nino strengthening is more helpful than a fading Nino would be; especially with Nina looking atmospheric hangover signs at times. 

So I can't help but think the recent strengthening may be the culprit the the model change, as you said.

I can't bite yet because I'm sooooo leary of winter season model performance in the last 5 years.

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot more -NAO showing up in early December than previous runs on both GEFS and EPS....I'd want to see this sustained for a few runs, because it was a notably continuity break

 

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Dec 30 - Jan 6 on Euro Weeklies

That's a cold pattern & a good southern slider & Apps runner, & Mid-Atlantic special pattern. 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant with models like the EPS weeklies is that they always seem to struggle even more than at other times of the year with long range December forecasts issued before Thanksgiving. It may have something to do with the change up with the seasonal patterns as we we shift gears from November into December. We have seen some very significant model shifts between November 20th and 30th for even just the first week of December. So I don’t start putting to much stock in them until we get closer to the start of December. Some years the Euro monthly for December nailed the December pattern when issued on the 5th. I can’t remember the last time the model  had a successful December forecast issued around November 20th. That being said, we have seen some pretty low skill  EPS December forecasts issued on or around December 5th. 

They all struggle. My point was that they ironically match up with Paul's MJO analogs. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was snowman that posted the tweets from Eric and Paul. My comment was that those constructed analog forecasts beyond 15 days are hit or miss. Not sure if Paul keeps verification statistics on them. There have been numerous times he posted them to twitter and we got completely different patterns. But that is par for the course with forecasts beyond 15 days. We know they are a crapshoot but the public may not realize the difference. 

Correct. Paul usually has a decent handle on when he thinks they're plausible or not. When he posts its because he really think they're dialed in. 

FWIW, today's Euro Weeklies eerily similar to Paul's MJO constructed analogs.

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those composite analogs on that site are very hit or miss for forecasts beyond 15 days. 

But you proceeded to post Webb's response to Roundy in agreement with that look & the 1880's El Nino winter pattern progression. So, are you actually disagreeing with Eric?

Listen, Eric likes to piss people off NE people & Mets, so keep that in mind. While he does expect cold at some point in the east, he's trolling winter lovers in the east & will no say "much" about it. But he has indeed showed his cards a little for JAN/FEB.

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, here’s the map that he showed. Assuming I’m interpreting this correctly, it appears to have the strong Canadian block (in red) that he mentioned, which is in W and C Canada. That is a strong +PNA block along with an Aleutian low to its west (in blue). The accompanying +PNA trough dips down into the E and EC US (blue). This looks like a strong +PNA block for 12/28/23. This would normally be quite a cold pattern for the E US and probably with the strongest cold anomalies in the SE US. This also seems to show a modest -NAO with some red over Iceland/E Greenland and blue to the south. (This cold pattern in late Dec would be consistent with the cold E US pattern being suggested by recebt MJO model forecasts are suggesting for mid Dec with weak phase 8.)

Here is Dec in 5 day increments. The only torchy looking part is DEC 16-23.

If it indeed played out in a similar way, that's not a bad strong El Nino Dec at all. 

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been the case frequently since the super El Niño. Missing a colder storm track in late November isn’t  that big a deal since even a colder track is facing more marginal snowfall climo especially near the coast.

But during the winter it’s a completely different matter. Missing the colder storm track last December with that last minute Southeast ridge pop up was a complete waste of the 2nd lowest December monthly -AO on record.

Then we had the Christmas major flash flooding with that warmer track right after the 40” event in BGM in December 20.

People said that it was understandable that December 2015 would be warm anyway since it was a super El Niño. But no other super El Niño produced a +13 winter month and an historic Southeast ridge like that. Plus we had the historic MJO 4-6 for a super El Niño.

Then we heard how the February 2018 historic warmth and Southeast ridge was just the La Niña climo for February. But the 500 mb height anomaly in the Northeast was higher than any previous date for the entire winter season. And it was our first 80° reading in February. 

In 18-19 we heard how the El Niño was just too weak to couple and it was no big deal. But many weaker El Niño’s had no trouble coupling. That Aleutian ridge-Southeast ridge in 18-19 was not normal for even a weak El Niño. 

The  strong Southeast ridge last winter got blamed on the -PDO. But most -PDOs from the earlier era had much weaker Southeast ridge patterns especially when the AO was negative. 

But don't forget that from 2002-2015 we had California folks blaming West coast ridging on CC. The SE ridge trend will eventually end as well. 

If something massive does not occur with the SST's we gonna give @snowman19 heck, lol. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 More can kicking regarding the timing on when the SPV gets weaker than normal on the Euro Weeklies. Back on Nov 1st, they had this occur at the start of Dec or ~30 days out:

 Today’s run delays it the most yet as it waits til Dec 20th, which is still 30+ days out:

 

When will the can kicking stop? Is this just a mirage or is it real? Do the Euro Weeklies have a bias toward weakening the SPV too much in Dec?

Late DEC, early JAN would line up with expectation. 

Often models see something in the future but jump on it too soon. 

With that said I wouldn't trust it either way past 10 days.

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different. 

29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure. 

I'm pretty sure Eric is. @snowman19 knows Eric I think. If I remember correctly from the AccuWeather days. Eric used to post quiet a bit at 33andrain as well.

I'm pretty sure Paul could care less about weather forums.

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

 

 

 

 

But we've been hearing this since September by Paul, Eric, posters here...etc.

I'm not saying we will not warm but at some point everyone has to admit that what they thought would occur in Oct & early NOV has not. Instead, they just keep moving the needle. So, is it not possible their future predictions may not transpire to their hype? It's plausible to consider. 

Can you not objectively say that? They can't. 

There is going to be more warming just not sure it's enough or in time to make a massive difference. 

10 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The field of climatology dates back to the 1820's when Fourier pondered why Earth was warmer than it otherwise would be without an atmosphere. Pouillet hypothesized that CO2 was the agent most responsible back in 1837. Foote and Tyndall independently confirmed CO2's heat trapping behavior in 1856 and 1861 respectively. And Arrhenius developed a rather complex model (for his day anyway) of climate change and even calculated the warming potential of increased CO2 back in 1896. He even predicted that humans would cause the planet to warm. Chamberlin published A Group of Hypothesis Bearing on Climate Changes in 1897. And all of this occurred before the turn of the 20th century. Climate science is not what I'd call young.

 

 

You're not getting it. We've learned so much but there's so much we do not know. Most Climatologist will tell you the same. I'm not saying anything other than that. 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Every area is under +2C and dropping per link below, except for 4 which is rising slightly. Good place to be at this point imho.

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

Just wait until that next WWB! It'll hit 3.0 in all regions except 4. 

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes, what Roundy is missing is that the ocean heat increase during the 3-year nina was an add to the earth's climate system due to the large (and growing) energy imbalance.

Then it's not C02. It doesn't work that way. C02 induced is more of a gradual issue. There maybe other factors that are not understood as of yet, like the massive amount of water vapor produced by Tonga. There's just so much about our climate system we do not understand, as much as we've learned the last century, the field of climatology is relatively young. 

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

While this spike may very well be temporary, the reason behind it is open to debate. May not be exclusively related to El Niño in a way that we traditionally understand. This El Niño is much weaker than 15-16. El Nino global temperatures typically peak near the end of the event in the late winter like in February 2016. This summer into fall historic spike is going against that previous pattern.
 

 

 

Paul explained why the heat release was immediate, very similar to 1877-78, rather than typical Nino spike. Again, Paul argues this event is unique even compared to 2015-16 although that Nino was stronger yet did not affect global patterns to the extent this one has per Paul.

BTW, I'm not a Gavin Schmidt fan. I think he's dirty & untrustworthy. The same with Michael Mann who I think is a crook & a massive jerk. I'm not a denier at all, but I detest propaganda. It hurts science in the long run...maybe even in the short run.

IRI Updated

OCT Updated to compare

Very similar but with less warmth in south central Canada. Just a small shade warmer in east CONUS.