stadiumwave

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks....yeah if we got that type of -EPO in Dec, then we're prob off to the races. That's a Dec '09 look...... though with a west-based -NAO that is more tame than the 2009 steroids version. But that would still be an excellent winter pattern.

Paul was asked that question & responded:

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What's the track record on that 2 months out?

I can't imagine it's great.

Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. 

But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.

I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

EURO Seasonal Updated 

DEC

JAN

FEB

4 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

He said colder back half like most typical niños, but he said if the forcing is around the Dateline, we will freeze most likely but obviously still early to know for sure

Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks 

36 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I didn't think about it. I was just curious mainly to find out if we had any opportunities to have a colder winter at any point this winter. Since we have quite a few conflicting signals.

Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold?

Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet:

Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday:

DEC

JAN

FEB

CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true. 

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What did the CanSips show last year at this time?

No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics. 

CanSips Updated:

DEC

JAN

FEB

Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. 

However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI. 

IRI Updated

TEMP Probabilities 

Link:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

12 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We shall see once November arrives if it still indicates that because we have seen great November forecasts turn into non cold winters

It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure. 

JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment:

DJF 2m Temps

DJF Precip

There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members.

2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

JMA updated its first DJF outlook:

**Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted.

**The look above is very similar to 2002-03:

On 8/11/2023 at 11:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

Good stuff!

Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. 

One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing:

If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above. 

Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb

12z Euro

10mb

50mb

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

SE ridge will appear but very short lived.