stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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Of course, but then there's this: So many factors can make a massive difference.
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Later the better.
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I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now.
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For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. I give you SST's for October 7, 2013: October 7, 2021...CURRENT: Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point
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Unfortunately NMME page does not have 500mb.
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It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.
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NMME Page...updated. Little change most notable is colder over western Canada. NMME Older NMME New CFS Older CFS New Canadian Older Canadian New NCAR Older NCAR New NASA Older NASA New
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Euro Seasonal Update....ugly NEW DEC OLD DEC NEW JAN OLD JAN NEW FEB OLD FEB Certainly it's not gospel but I do not like the trend. Hopefully NOV improves.
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Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie.
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An interesting blend: 1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's: OCTOBER That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS: That blend has a great first half of winter: DEC/JAN Then ridging takes over in FEB: FEB Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies.
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Great job!!
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So, let's say it was 132. Who knows maybe it was 135. I still think the driving force is just to think "that just can't happen", so let's investigate a reason to show how bad they missed it. Lets do away with the record. So, let's question the 100 degree temp in Alaska in 1915 also.
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Count me unimpressed. Revisionist history. Maybe they will figure out a clever way to say 100 years from how stupid we were & our temperature data was way off....lol. I mean...come on. This is about setting the stage for new records. Climate change is real but I'm sorry I'm bothered by this.
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Of course there's just no way they observed the correct record of 134 in 1913. Just has to be wrong...right?
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I do not have a dog in this fight. Firm believer in AGW...however, the history of Arctic temps is a moving target.
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If the Euro Weeklies are correct a new minimum is inevitable. Big signal for dipole pattern continuing throughout August This is day 8-13, 5 day average. That's a strong signal for 8-13 day, 5-day average
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In his defense...that is not how the media reported it. Big headlines & the words unprecedented used. I looked at the satellite data & thought "What the heck?", it's not open.
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Lol...ok
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Actually...to me it's pretty remarkable we don't beat 2012 considering where we started.
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Anyone know where GlobalWarmer poster is? I figured he'd be all over this. Kind of concerns me he's not posting. I believe he was previously named frivolous.
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Folks who were hoping for 2012 cyclone repeat forget that volume is better than that summer.
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Agree on both accounts
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Considering where we started I think it's remarkable that this year wasn't a record melt!
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If I've learned anything before it's don't count your chickens before they hatch. Anything can happen of the next few weeks & catch everyone off guard. I'm not implying it will but unforseen weather patterns never ceases to amaze me.
