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PivotPoint

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  1. PivotPoint
    That’s a good point Eta: seriously they do and the nam albeit prob way overdone might be picking up on better dynamics and enhancement from the coastal. We can hope
  2. PivotPoint
    Close to 9” on the 3k nam. Split the difference with 12k and I’ll take my double digit snowfall. Wow. Sipping coffee reading all of this is literally the best thing ever. Thank you NAM for your entertainment.
  3. PivotPoint
    Yea could someone post Kuchera please, just for.. you know
  4. PivotPoint
    The low just literally sits and stalls. Lol
  5. PivotPoint
    It’s still going!! “And.. the Weenie Run of the Year Award goes to... you got it folks, the NAM!!”
  6. PivotPoint
    31.2/14 Clarendon (Arlington) Surprised we haven’t been upped to a warning. Oh well, here we go!!
  7. PivotPoint
    I remember how the Jan 2016 storm locked in on the models at 8 days away. Never seen anything like that in my life before. Just run after run after run of perfect hits. Once in a lifetime experience to see such consistency with such a monumental hit come to fruition like it did.
  8. PivotPoint
    Oh that makes sense
  9. PivotPoint
    8-12 where? Nova?
  10. PivotPoint
    Very solid. Looks like euro. Looks like mesos. 18z euro holds within .1 or so range and its all good at that point for a solid 3-5 most places. Im officially in
  11. PivotPoint
    I see .3-.4 dc proper. So it’s approx 3-4 inches and more with advertised ratios. I don’t gfs is picking up on the banding and coastal enhancement. I think it’s underdone imo
  12. PivotPoint
    18z gfs actually not a step back. QPF bumped to our south. It’s just not in line with the mesos which are showing the banding structure better imo. It’s what their for in these short lead scenarios so I’ll take their word for it unless reason not to. But gfs is same maybe slight improvement south
  13. PivotPoint
    Big run on th nam and still going. .5-.6 DCA and not done. Deform shield more consolidated. This is NAM’s wheel house so hard to totally discount. Still skeptical but as depicted looks realistic given current trend. This might be happening
  14. PivotPoint
    I like the shape of that blue blob. Looks like might be a favorable area for banding. Extend that structure and we are in business
  15. PivotPoint
    I was just about to post that lol ninja’d I tell you what too... CMC has consistently pointed at higher totals (little ebb and flow) and better coastal enhancement. The 12z is even better than 0z lol. If it scores a coup on the gfs/euro I’ll build a mini shrine to it on my desk
  16. PivotPoint
    Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point for putting a score on the board
  17. PivotPoint
    Slight change for my back yard in Arlington. 6z had me 4-5” this is 3-4”. So slight qpf reduction across the area on the whole. Not horrible but definitely didn’t bump up
  18. PivotPoint
    I was definitely feeling deb mode last night. Wake up to some improvements. Great to see euro catch on to them as well. I’ve been conditioned to expect worsening towards game time so it’s nice to see the opposite of that for once! Hopefully we can hold serve till tonight’s run then we’re pretty locked in
  19. PivotPoint
    That would be sweet except you know that’s not gonna happen. FV3 is JV at this point. Maybe varsity one day but it was one of the last to catch on to the track euro and gfs had two days ago. Might as well be a 3rd cousin to the 84 nam
  20. PivotPoint
    I agree it is over used however I think I’m using it fine here. Euro 18z down from 12z, correct? Gfs 0z down from 18z and 12z I believe. More Nam comes into range the worse it’s looking. Cmc cut down its totals although still looks good. On a whole multiple models paired down as the event approaches closer. Looks trendy to me
  21. PivotPoint
    Sorry, I meant to say cmc. Cmc shows close to 6 and is by far the wettest. And gfs has trended down and nam is close to a non-event. Not trying to deb but I see optimism around which is great but wonder why considering things seem to be slowly unraveling to a very minor event imo
  22. PivotPoint
    18z RGEM is not 2-4 for dc metro. It’s closer to 4+ and it’s the wettest model now with cmc. Is that not correct??
  23. PivotPoint
    It’s overdone. All other guidance agrees with that. It pairing down is playing catch up. Guaranteed it pairs down every subsequent run. Im hoping for 2” in Arlington but looks like best guess is 1” considering the WAA looks less and less robust with every run
  24. PivotPoint
    You’re right, but we keep losing ground and it soon will be a possible outcome. Additionally, I’ve live in nova for 30 years and have seen the mountains gobble up WAA snows that have taken that approach angle west to east. I hope it doesn’t obviously but I think it’s now more of a real possibility than my thinking earlier today
  25. PivotPoint
    But the real problem when dealing in .1-.2 is that might actually mean zero. Seem it happen
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