PivotPoint

0z shift back south with heavier snow 12z comparison

I like where your head is at. Gotta get the next couple runs to pull her back south. Stop the mid level warm air push. Make Big Snow Storms Great Again!

You’re right. I still think it shows trend wise that the big slug of qpf distribution is not still jogging north. Gotta stop the trend

18z NAM holds serve. Maybe slight tick south with best qpf from prior run

The trend will reverse slightly and jay and Stowe will be back in the 15+ range. Models do this a lot with wound up systems right as they develop. I bet the next couple of runs tic it back down another 50-75 miles. Track adjust slightly south

The globals are almost in lock-step. GFS just ran and its easily 12+ Euro is 12+ Stowe-Jay peak is gonna get crushed tomorrow. Easily 15+ total. It's locked.

I VERY much care.. and will be visiting the land of PF this weekend. Driving up from DC starting 6:30pm Thursday night after work. Thinking first wave is starting to clear out by then. Looking at timing, hoping to be past Boston by midnight-ish. Can’t tell exactly but looks like my biggest trouble will be once turning to snow Connecticut rt 91 heading into VT. Dont hate.. par tic i PATE!! Everyone in the forum should come to Stowe. Screw work. Go Euro- ukie combo

Warmth never has a problem trending I do like this vort though. The little vort that could

Well done Ji lol

Woof. That’s horrendous for mid-late January. One run but yikes. My WAG at the beginning my of the month is slowly turning sour. I really thought the west coast troughing would eventually retrograde as the West PAC ridge pushes into the higher latitudes. Hopefully disrupting that crappy zonal flow we’ve had a bunch. Just hasn’t happened and now with no -NAO help it’s hard to hold any cold air in place... the little bit that’s even around attm. We’ll score.....eventually.

Pumping that ridge out west... if this happens and NAO space even gets modest blocking I think we score a fun one (6+) Is that a west-based NAO? It seems a little under the latitude for true -NAO... correct?

The issue imo is still the west coast. No ridging per above, and you get this washed out trough on east coast with great low placement. We need that high shown here but with the PNA pumped up a bit. Atlantic has been fairly cooperative. Damn PAC and PNA have not.

I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events

The problem with “searching” for changes beyond day 10, is that stable features always degrade quicker on models than what happens in reality. There’s a unrealistic expectation that any model can predict even macro level pattern evolutions. Never has been done. So my thoughts are a super strong WPAC ridge has to have an equally strong counter influence at some point to change its reload pattern. Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

Yes, we can hope

Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this

Trough in the west shows persistencey across most guidance. I saw this west coast trough and western pacific ridge early on in October and later in November. Thought to myself “that’s not a good direction”. Funny how these features can be hard to get rid of. Just like NAO blocking. Big pieces don’t always move so easily. Definitely thinking below avg snow fall this winter with avg to moderately above avg temps. Hoping we can pull off a couple -AO periods with PAC Jet settling down long enough to allow decent spacing for something to pop late January. Happy New Year

Any update on Stowe or Jay by chance would be greatly appreciated. Have they been mostly snow or are the getting the mix bag? Was thinking of making the hike up from VA but wanted to check with the local knowledge first. Thinking the upslope looks palatable perhaps through Thursday. Thanks guys... congrats on the snow (or frozen, at least)

Medium heavies lined up to my NW here in Clarendon. Might get another .5” lol By the NAM called this. Don’t care anyone says Banding, qpf, etc. was jumpy but it saw the potential first and I watched every single model run

Just over 11” on my parking roof in Arlington (Clarendon) What an incredible storm. Over 31 hours of continuous snowfall with a few very brief lulls oh, and it’s snowing again lol. Legit rates as the snow to the NW pivots through. What a day

Heaviest rates yet here in Arlington. ULL love. You can see the small wave like bands pushing from the southeast

This band means business. Roads caving again

Band about to pivot through Arlington/dc Hopefully this one means a little business

That is a good beer for deform action. Denseeee

These bands are kind of breaking up before they hit Arlington. We’ve kinda in this pseudo snow hole all day where nothing hard charges through with out deintensifying a bit. Hopefully that trend changes