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PivotPoint

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  1. PivotPoint
    The exception to the trending theory though is the strength of the SW. That has been a big question mark and simply put a weaker wave will have a tendency to stay south with the confluence it’s fighting against. Disagree?
  2. PivotPoint
    We gotta be careful this thing doesn’t get too amped. Not wanting to ride that rain/snow line. Still 3+ days away. Boston is still in the game. Unfortunately
  3. PivotPoint
    Talk about leaving work early lol
  4. PivotPoint
    I put these 500mb frames together for comparative purposes (I know they're not the best maps). I think the GFS/CMC/EURO have been the three that have shown modest run consistency. At 72 hours out they all look pretty similar with the ridging and low placement so thats a good sign When you get to 120 you can see GFS is a little quicker, CMC has less confluence which is why you get a less suppressed solution, and Euro keeps the east coast high pressure in a less favorable position over the lakes So my point being I think the ridge out west is beginning to come into range as to being molded fairly well. One of the big questions is how does the high pressure play out. If we can get it to stay little more relaxed as depicted in the CMC and GFS to an extent, I think we start seeing in the coming model runs a shift of the the best lift and QPF field towards DC/Balt, assuming that the SW holds itself together and the NS doesn't lose its beneficial timing as depicted in the current runs.
  5. PivotPoint
    Th icon also shows nada currently lol so can't say it gets any gold stars
  6. PivotPoint
    lol You know it's not staying down there for long
  7. PivotPoint
    I'll take this. I don't know about y'all but my odds are on that the QPF field shifting more north as we get closer. Just a wag that Richmond doesn't see close to a foot out of this. The confluence isn't nearly as strong as the November storm.
  8. PivotPoint
    It's a definite improvement. Especially (from what I can see) the handling on the ridge out west. That seemed to be more aligned with the 12z GFS. Which I think is a good sign that the GFS is picking up the players on the field (perhaps better/earlier) than the euro.
  9. PivotPoint
    The trough still has too much positive tilt but it seems improved on the TT maps FWIW
  10. PivotPoint
    12z euro small change @72hr with ridge out west not quite as compressed. Hope it translates downstream. Praise the king come on baby ETA: Never mind toggled the wrong run. Ignore my stupidity above
  11. PivotPoint
    Southern VA/Northern NC jackpot again? Either someone down there has been doing their snow dance or the snow gods are pissed at Ji
  12. PivotPoint
    E4 would debunk all the "snow hole-ist" fanatics out there
  13. PivotPoint
    I can remember one of those last year. Can't remember the exact date but GFS was Dr. No and Euro kept spitting out clown maps up till like 48 hrs prior. Then it finally came in line with GFS and I think we ended up with a mix bag if I remember correctly. To my point though... I also remember last year or the year before that all the models were on board and euro took its sweet ole time and everyone was freaking out till like, 24 hours before the event till FINALLY the euro came around almost verbatim to the GFS. So it goes both ways. Not sure which way it's skewed towards though. Your impression (skew) is probably the right one though
  14. PivotPoint
    I for one have seen this happen countless times -- Euro holds out the longest on consolidating the energy and many times will show a shredded out mess at these leads. And seasonal trends have some validity when trying to decipher model output in such a situation, so I'll go along with it... until the 12z euro comes out at least
  15. PivotPoint
    I'd gladly take that too
  16. PivotPoint
    Might be the high end by the end of today's runs
  17. PivotPoint
    I don't disagree with you there. I guess my point was more that the amped solution is absent largely impart to NS and SS interaction and the timing of confluence. Change anyone of those three variables and the amped solutions could make a reappearance. Albeit, your point is probably that it is unlikely those solutions will come back, to which, I would probably have to agree.
  18. PivotPoint
    It is a nice hit. CMC does this though... it seems to consolidate these southern stream short waves quicker. Not always how it plays out. I feel the GFS/Euro tend to have higher skill in picking up small details a little better. Makes a big difference with these delicate timing scenarios Everyone will be watching 12z euro today thats for sure
  19. PivotPoint
    This is accurate. Truth be told (technically speaking) GFS wise there is no trend. If you were to see a trend it would actually be slight improvements in EPS QPF in past 36 hours. Very slight
  20. PivotPoint
    Yea, its hard to argue that. But I have see the globals do the dance before. Timing in the southwest is crucial/trailing wave our our SW's heels/confluence up north that will change model run to model run. I think we're in that weird window of 4 days out where the players on the field aren't quite in focus jus yet, and we'll see a true trend emerge in the next 3-4 model cycles. 12z GFS was case and point.. it has wavered 3 runs in a row with the how dynamic the SW gets and the confluence up top. Lots to be ironed out but my bar is 2-3" here in Arlington. Count that a win in my book
  21. PivotPoint
    Those who adopt this type of thinking should start preparing themselves to understand that a pattern change can mean everything for snow or absolutely NOTHING for snow. Plenty of good patterns produce ZILCH in our area. Fact of life in the mid-atlantic We need to score when we can score and right now is one of those opportunities... for all we know we could all get goose egged for 3 weeks after our "pattern change".
  22. PivotPoint
    You can see the issues clearer with that graphic. Energy is left back in the Southwest and and energy from the NS didn’t phase. But the bright side is this is a workable look and if we can keep the southern stream a little more consolidated as game time approaches then there’s enough here to make this work 2-5in. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0z euro consolidates the SW a little earlier over Texas and finds a middle ground with the GFS. Say 2-4in event for much of the sub forum. I’d be happy
  23. PivotPoint
    Yea, that part isn’t great for sure. I think you’re right I’d definitely be disappointed if moving forward over next 2-3 days we didnt have some big solutions in the mix. I currently think (could change) that a more modest solution is the most likely. Either way, I’m hoping for a good track on this one. Been bored with this current pattern, sheesh.
  24. PivotPoint
    I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario. Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event
  25. PivotPoint
    If JMA is in then "nuff said" I too noticed the undercutting on the closed ridge out west. Seems that lower heights are pushing in quickly on the coat tails of our SW. This is the GFS @108. You can see how the ridge is getting compressed which from a timing perspective effects our system down stream. Specifically, limiting the toughs amplitude to dig and potentially making the whole system more progressive. The current GFS isn't kicking our SW out as quick as the EURO is with its fully closed off ridge solution. I'd like to see better spacing of the two southern stream shortwaves or less amped solution of the trailing SW
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