Jump to content

PivotPoint

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    714

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by PivotPoint

  1. PivotPoint
    That's well played Southern slider was always most likely outcome if you followed the H5 progression. Never quite got to where we needed it now models are coming around Mappy owes you an apology. She used one model run 2 days ago to troll you when you said your opinion was unchanged just because one run of the GFS showed an amped scenario. Good job sticking to your original analysis. Probably will turn out right
  2. PivotPoint
    Sounds like wishful thinking to me If that were true then I don't think you would of seen a step back in the GEFS. You'd still see at least a couple well timed-up solutions which were all absent from 12z
  3. PivotPoint
    My point earlier (which I thought was a clever one but got deleted, god forbid one makes analogy during storm mode) was that model inconsistency aside it is best to use our climo analogs to determine events like this. Not just discrete analogs. So, its a little dissapeointng to see such a removal of the coastal aspect from the gefs and the op. The cmc seems out to lunch but euro weighs in momentarily.
  4. PivotPoint
    That is a good look. However I’m now concerned about spacing and timing of the transition of the slp. The moisture that is coming over the blue ridege is light as depicted. I’ve seen models overestimate the ability of that moisture transport to overcome that natural barrier. I was relying on the coastal transitioning quickly and taking a slight jog up the coast as it exits. Without that scenario we’re relying on our first 1-3” inches of snow to come by way of the front end crossing the blue ridge. Then a late coastal addition of another 1-2”. I just see way too many ways to fail on this one. My main point is I don’t like how we are positioned in the transitional zone of the handoff to the coastal.
  5. PivotPoint
    Things are starting to unravel a bit. Low end is now a possible shut out because .1-.2 on globals can actually mean nothing on the ground — dry mid levels, shadowing off blue ridge, etc) if were expecting 2-3” as the coastal is pulling away... tell me how many times that’s worked out. 1-2” would be a BIG win at this point imo
  6. PivotPoint
    I wouldn’t sweat it to much with the nam just yet. You know this obviously. It doesn’t have the skill 60-84 especially with coastal evolutions. Holds energy in weird ways sometimes and you get these odd looking scenarios. Wouldn’t worry
  7. PivotPoint
    This is called expert analysis and we are lucky to have them. Good write up and well explained
  8. PivotPoint
    I did. Let’s say screw this event and start tracking a REAL storm.
  9. PivotPoint
    That’s inaccurate
  10. PivotPoint
    Lol CMC ups theante. GFS hours of light snow, looks weak but slp is closer to the coast then 18z. Would sure love to buy me some stock in cmc but hard to without support. Biggest euro run of the season! Ha
  11. PivotPoint
    Nam won’t pick up on the proper evolution past 60hrs. But the strung out factor is increasing across guidance. I still like my mind set from beginning of 2-4”. More is better but euro will most likely start leveling expectations at 0z
  12. PivotPoint
    The former would probably put us in that 5-7 zone. OTS is starting to look like low end stuff but euro will weigh in soon enough
  13. PivotPoint
    Personally, I see the lastest EPS as a nice consensus of an incoming event and a possibility of more favorable timing leading to bigger solutions. This is what makes this hobby fun Till it isn’t anymore and I turn down the bitter sweet path of living only for KUs like our fearless leader. Ji
  14. PivotPoint
    Wow, there are more big hits in there than I was expecting. Any sort of trend towards a bigger hit in the next 2 runs and the ensembles are going to light up big time. Not probable but it shows the possibility is still alive eta: and those are 10-1 maps. Not often we can expect better ratios — nice!
  15. PivotPoint
    I literally agree with everything you just said lol There is still fail potential (any event really) but there’s also some upside with this system as well. It’s certainly not void of moisture and small timing difference in the NS and SS could bump us up from 2-4 to 5-7 pretty easily. For once it looks like our spot is favorable to miminimize downside risk with also ability to reap the upside too. We’ll see
  16. PivotPoint
    2-4". Reasonable
  17. PivotPoint
    Yes, exactly. And back end to the extent of the slp track Sorry I should of been more clear
  18. PivotPoint
    I know man. It wasn't apples to apples but it gave me the broad strokes to surmise that it wasn't a better trend for coastal hugging. which is what I was getting at. It exited the coast kinda lame. True?
  19. PivotPoint
    Not way out. And I was using 120hr to compare to the last 0z run to see what the strength was like exiting the coast or if there was still an organized slp coming up the coast. TT maps aren't the greatest
  20. PivotPoint
    Any thought in the ridge closing off again out west. Is there causation here or just coincidence?
  21. PivotPoint
    500mb @120 does not look great
  22. PivotPoint
    @ 96 slp coming in little higher. The ridge being closed off is slowing the SS to climb a little more. Hopefully translate to QPF max moving from down below Richmond to near EZF. We'll see
  23. PivotPoint
    Its doing that thing where it closes off the west coast ridge again
  24. PivotPoint
    Yea, that makes sense. Thanks
  25. PivotPoint
    The problem with taking the models verbatim on duration is that duration events almost NEVER play out in our region as depicted. That is a pretty hard to argue point around these parts. I see the 12z GFS dropping almost 1/3 its qpf as the slp finally starts to gear up and pull away. Obviously, taking the best lift with it and out of our region. I personally would not put much stock into a 30hr+ snow event around here without an extremely unique setup. My current wag off latest guidance is a quicker exit of precip or slower saturation upon onset to override dry mid-levels. My guess would be 4-8 hours less of precip then modeled which is probably .2-.25 less qpf depending on whether the front side is slow or backside is quick. Puts everyone in DC metro around 2-4" event which is my first official guess. I'd take that
×
×
  • Create New...