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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It's not weak here, and this is 8 days out. Maybe focus on this period and not worry so much about the period beyond that. There will be more error associated with location/strength of h5 features further into the run. Also there will be some actual waxing and waning regardless- the atmosphere is a fluid in motion. Even in a blocky pattern these features can't remain stationary.
  2. CAPE
    Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out.
  3. CAPE
    I see some nice things for that period.
  4. CAPE
    Nothing nice about it... you need to be more specific.
  5. CAPE
    0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs.
  6. CAPE
    This isn't a new development though. This has been modeled for many days now. I do think that ridge closing off and shifting north + the Pac trough encroaching on the west coast is the main reason recent guidance is somewhat less cold for the beginning of late month 'prime' window. It looks temporary though as the trough retrogrades a bit with a PNA ridge starting to develop towards the 23rd.
  7. CAPE
    I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him.
  8. CAPE
    It would be a little crazy. This one better not fizzle. It will be the end of many here. WW is teetering.
  9. CAPE
    More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks.
  10. CAPE
    All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression.
  11. CAPE
    Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window.
  12. CAPE
    The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much.
  13. CAPE
    Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far.
  14. CAPE
    PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period back in Jan. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either.
  15. CAPE
    12z GEFS for the 23rd
  16. CAPE
    Looks like it. A bit too north. Much different than the 0z run.
  17. CAPE
    The Pacific low encroaches on the west coast for a time and that means downstream we get airmasses that are modified. It looks temporary and with the favorable NA, it would come down to the exact track. With marginal cold around, we would need a low to track underneath and a bit off the coast to keep a flow from the north. Big dogs that wind up along the coast are always problematic to some degree for I95 and east even with arctic air initially in place.
  18. CAPE
    The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen.
  19. CAPE
    Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range.
  20. CAPE
    Latest blend
  21. CAPE
    GEFS and EPS look pretty much the same now, other than the GEFS being a bit drier. Signal is for appreciable snow north of the M-D line.
  22. CAPE
    Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too.
  23. CAPE
  24. CAPE
    Getting closer to something for around PD.
  25. CAPE
    Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm.
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