CAPE

Bx Engine just shared a post in the Banter thread written by Burns' son about his dad.

^Still looks like an h5 ridge develops in the central/western US in the LR, so it is debatable how much heat returns even after the cool shot associated with the digging eastern Canada trough lifts out.

After several dry days, a potential active period returns for Friday through Sunday. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- By Friday, with return flow fully in place ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures and humidity values will continue to increase as thicknesses increase across the area. Heat Index values are forecast to be high enough for potential Heat Headlines. As a cold front approaches, there could be enough instability and disturbances aloft for showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the day and into the evening hours. This front may stall near the area over the weekend, leading to additional showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. Also, depending on where the front sets up, areas south of the boundary may keep enough heat and humidity in place for additional Heat Headlines on Saturday. With PW values near 2+ inches, heavy rainfall will become a threat with any showers or thunderstorms. There may also be a threat for strong winds as well with some storms.

High here was 85. Currently 78/62

Forecast highs were mid 80s for the lowlands. Pretty much verified.

Pretty nice outside now. 82/63 Might have a drink on the patio this evening.

I posted this in the Discobs thread, but it really belongs here. Ensemble guidance is still advertising a shift in the longwave pattern with the upper ridge retrograding into the central/western US for the end of the month into August. That should at least give us some drier air if not notably less hot. That pattern could also put our area in a position for impacts from mesoscale convective systems that develop on the periphery of the ridge and drop southeastward.

It was like that here too, but sun broke out in the last 30 mins. Still pretty humid but not awful. 80/66 Dews should lower through the afternoon with a breeze out of the north. This evening should feel fantastic. Tomorrow is going to be about the best weather we get in this area in late July, and Wed should also be very nice.

Ensemble guidance is still advertising a shift in the longwave pattern with the upper ridge retrograding into the central/western US for the end of the month into August. That should at least give us some drier air if not notably less hot. That pattern could also put our area in a position for mesoscale convective systems that develop on the periphery of the ridge and drop southeastward. Probably should have posted this in the other thread but whatever lol.

A few days ago the models had the front clearing the area late Sunday. Its going to be mid to late day, so delayed not denied. Dews will drop this afternoon, and tomorrow will be the nicest day. But yeah it will be short lived as the HP slides southeastward into the western Atlantic. Southerly flow on the backside- we know what that means, esp with the anomalously warm water off the east coast.

It's headed for your yard.

Its fine on COD. It is often broken for one reason or another, but not now. NWS radar is garbage, so if you are using that I am not surprised if it doesn't work right lol

The Orioles have been outscored 28-2 in their last 3 games. Football season can't come fast enough.

0.40" brings the monthly total to 5.5". Sunny now.

Getting some decent rain with this batch of showers rolling through this morning. 0.37"

"We" lol Literally no one likes you here. You contribute nothing of value. And you were whining. OMG it's not raining in my yard...........................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You have little understanding of the complex nature of the atmosphere, which is fine. Read more, post less. And don't make stupid, snarky replies to a met, moaning when it isn't raining on your little yard when you think it should be.

If you want to make a whiny ass post, have at it. But don't do it as a snarky reply to a well respected, well liked Met in our sub forum. Who the hell are you to question his assessment of the situation?

Upper ridge builds out west for the last week of July and looks to persist into early August. We will still see some hot weather ofc, but not the oppressively high dewpoints.

GEFS concurs (as does the EPS). Canadian HP. Yeah baby! I took Monday off. Gonna explore Conquest Preserve NW of Centreville. Never been.

5.1" for the month after last night. More than double the June total. Needed July to deliver and so far so good.

Guidance suggests early to mid next week(maybe beyond) will be very nice for mid-late July. After the front moves through over the weekend, Canadian HP builds southeastward into a position over NE. Low to mid 80s with reasonable dewpoints will feel like early Fall compared to what we have been dealing with lately.

Ok that was a pretty impressive storm and better than I expected. Nothing severe but entertaining with a decent amount of rain. 0.76" with some lighter rain continuing.

Impressive T&L right now. Pouring rain.

Not much here so far- .03". Hearing some persistent thunder with weakening storms on the doorstep per radar. Hopefully it holds together. A half inch would be nice.

What brand do you use? I buy Sawyer on Amazon. Good Stuff but crappy pump spray dispenser. Super annoying.