CAPE

Its 'there' on the GEFS and Euro ens mean too, but barely. Looks like most of the moisture gets wrung out over the western highlands, which is typical of a weak clipper. Snow in the air and maybe a whitening of the ground in the lowlands in early Dec is better than cold and dry.

12z Euro snows on the coast of SC/NC on the 4th.

12z GFS has a weak clipper with a bit of snow verbatim next Sunday. Maybe a few days later there will be a better chance for a NS shortwave to dig and sharpen the trough more.

Yay lake effect and mountain upslope snow as we get cold and dry

For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.

If the advertised h5 pattern and associated cold verifies, our chance for a storm in early December will likely come via an Alberta Clipper. If we get this sort of amplification, there very well could be a strong shortwave that digs and induces a moderate storm- and maybe even bombs as it approaches the coast.

Anomalous early season winter cold with no moisture. Woot!

Hard to complain and looks cold, but remains to be seen how conducive it is for getting a significant NS shortwave to dig enough to develop a storm south of our latitude. Probably need an anticyclonic wave break to get a shortwave embedded in the flow to dive further southward/further west than these panels imply.

Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north.

Not seeing a discernable signal for a storm beyond late next week on the 0z ens guidance. There is plenty of broad NS vorticity embedded in the flow but a lack of sharp shortwaves as currently modeled. An amplified western US ridge with an axis further west would be more conducive for a sharper NS wave that can dig further south and involve some of the energy in the SW undercutting the ridge. That appears to be the best path to get surface low development early enough and further south for the first week of December, and what I will be watching for in upcoming model simulations. 0z Euro has the right idea and gets close in the 2nd-3rd timeframe but it doesnt come together soon enough and surface low development is a bit late/offshore.

More beneficial (cold) rain today. 0.35" Over an inch the last couple days. Denting the drought finally. eta- 0.47" total today.

Weird team. Offense can be prolific at times. The team as a whole is undisciplined, and that's a feature of a Harbaugh coached team. Tucker is now unreliable. Worst pass defense in the NFL. Monkon is a dumbass who doesn't really want to run the ball. With the changes they made in the secondary, the play was much better against the Steelers. Maybe that continues. They must reduce the penalties. Maybe Tucker can figure out why he is pushing the ball left. Get back to running for 150+ yards per game. If they can do most/all of that, they will win 10+ games and be in the playoffs.

Snow game and Steelers lose. Perfect.

Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run.

T&L and heavy rain. Its been ages. 0.73"

Actual rain and wind gusts 40 to 50 tonight. I was a bit surprised at the wind part. Good thing the soil is dry as a bone and hard as a rock. Oh shit, here comes RR.

The 6z GFS gets it done with some shortwave energy riding the thermal boundary.

There is a signal on the 0z Euro ens for a moderate precip event in early Dec. About a dozen members have frozen for at least some of the MA(apart from the western highlands) in the December 2-4 period.

Ralph?

The following shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge gets suppressed and strung out well south, unsurprisingly. Nice to see some wintry possibilities on guidance for the beginning of December.

HH GFS brings some legit cold heading into Dec. Pretty radical look. H5 Avocado.

This is a general winning look in a Nina that can suppress the SE ridge at times, bringing shots of legit cold southward and placing the thermal boundary in a favorable spot. CFS has probably been the most persistent of the seasonal guidance the last couple months depicting the -EPO with southward stretched TPV. We have been seeing that same look on LR ens and extended guidance lately, which is definitely encouraging.

That Euro run would be a pretty straightforward path to an early season victory. Miller A!!

Too bad its forever away because that is a pretty sweet evolution with energy riding overtop the amplifying western ridge and dropping southward, inducing low pressure in the gulf that tracks right up the coast just off of Cape Hatteras. Plenty of high pressure to the north.