CAPE

I know you know this, but ops at range tend to do this.

Anyone have any QBO updates? The new u30 data should be out in a week.

GEFS has the upper strat on fire heading towards the end of the first week of Dec, and if that verifies there should be some impacts down the road on the troposphere. So I guess what I am saying is...SWE will save us from a prolonged ++AO.

Temp down to 39. Looks like there might be some wet flakes mixed in, but with the wind and the leaves flying, hard to be sure. I am not interested enough to get dressed and go outside to further investigate.

10 bit resolution. Not too impressive these days.

Solid band of rain moving in here now. Just been cloudy with some sun breaks all morning until now. 41 here so I doubt I will see any mangled flakes. Some fattie leaves falling with all this wind though.

@showmethesnow Nice write up. I have always thought the Dec 2-3 period had limited potential, but I have warmed up to it a bit. It still looks like it ultimately ends up cold chasing rain with any secondary development occurring too late for the MA. Worth watching for sure. I have been a bit more intrigued with a possible clipper beyond that period, with the cold air in place and NS energy dropping in. Not that clippers are high probability events for this area in early Dec either lol. But hey, we anyway.

0.62" here. Looks like today may turn out to be pretty nice, especially this afternoon.

If you are referring to the end of the op run, that is a pretty interesting look, and the same period that is being discussed in the posts above. It has a primary low running well to our NW and manages to develop a coastal south of our latitude, but too little too late for our region. Verbatim it would be cold chasing rain. It appears to be a period to watch. If you are referring to the end of the Euro ensemble run- it looks "ok" but the reason it has that ambiguous look is there is a large spread on the individual members, in particular the location and magnitude of any cold air. There are quite a few that would have us torching with a SE ridge for example.

HH GFS says maybe there is a legit chance for the Dec 2nd storm. I have not been too interested in this(still not) for my yard, but for NW areas it might be worth watching. and esp for the highlands. With the h5 look it is possible this takes a more southerly track(coastal redevelopment) than currently depicted.

Verbatim to this point its not bad. I suppose we have been at this game long enough that when a pattern "degrades", we tend to roll it forward anticipating further degradation. I am not worried too much about the advertised +AO/NAO for the short term, as long as we have a -EPO. The latest ens runs are encouraging in that respect, esp the GEFS and GEPS. In the long run, not sure how that scenario works out for us should it become a mainstay. Hopefully things will reshuffle and we won't have 3 months of deep blue up top.

42 here. Wintry feeling day. It shall be a chilly rain. Yes a month or so from now perhaps this would be a slightly different outcome. Also I decided to put the leaves off till the end of the week. The last major batch looks primed to come down, so not wasting my efforts today when I have a 4 day weekend upcoming.

Just drank a Stone W00t Stout. It's a goodie.

Exactly.

If there is to be a frozen event in our region(other than like Canaan) I don't think this is the one. It would more likely be the period just beyond this when the cold gets entrenched for a few days(maybe) and then it comes down to timing a shortwave and getting it to track underneath before the cold exits. At some point maybe we will see legit NA blocking again and we won't have to worry about absolutely perfect timing.

I think its a glitch as it seems only the GEFS has the affliction.

I literally just looked at this panel and the first word that came to mind was ambiguous lol. Just not worth worrying much about how the pattern may or may not evolve beyond 10 days at this point. Plenty of "options". Actually the GEPS has the best look D15.

Unless I am looking at the wrong thing, color key looks the same. The mean shows literally nothing in locations where multiple members have snow. eta- it's only the GEFS, not the EPS.

Some funky ninja action with the last few posts.

Early jumpers can step away from the edge until the next model cycle.

The ensembles have been showing a steady move towards a positive AO/NAO. It's really not that sudden. Anyway, the 12z GEFS looks fine- better actually than the 2 previous runs towards D15. EPO ridge looks more stout.

Was anyone really expecting anything other than the usual backloaded winter? I will go out on a limb..I think its still on the table!!

Nearly a perfect inversion of our ideal pattern

I am still kind of meh about the 'new and improved' site/interface. It's a wash to me. Still lags and then there are things like this.