CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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There are so many shortwaves embedded in the NS flow its chaos this far out. The character of the western ridge at specific times is critical too- the axis, whether its more amped or broader..
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Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal-
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And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west.
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Yeah esp when the pattern is NS dominant. Difficult to get a good moisture feed with modest waves embedded in a dominant flow from the NW.
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Yeah the band has been persistent to the south of there. The forecast was dramatically adjusted yesterday afternoon. I read some of the AFD and apparently with these LES events the hi-res short range models have a south bias so they tend to lean towards the globals when forecasting the exact location of the bands. I guess that didn't quite work out in this case.
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No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations.
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26
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Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a potential event a week out.
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The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.
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6z also has the MA snowstorm. The GFS depicts near perfect timing with phasing multiple NS shortwaves, and involves significant energy from Baja.
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If only they weren't extinct.
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Watertown Live stream. They were supposed to have 18"+ otg by now per the forecasts this morning. Maybe later tonight into tomorrow the band will shift north.
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Yeah I knew someone who went to school there. Perpetual snow showers with a few inches here and there, but almost never in a legit lake effect band.
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Nah just tracking via forecast discussions and webcams lol. Haven't reached the 'chase' level of desperation quite yet.
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The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.
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I could see how frustrating lake effect can be, from both a forecasting and weather weenie perspective. Imagine being just a bit on the wrong side of a death band, but it lasting for 12+ hours.
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Yeah Jones would have been a nice pickup for insurance this season, and a compensatory pick next year when he ultimately walked in free agency this offseason.
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It was spotty earlier- heavy snow showers then slack off to nothing. Looks like a nice band has formed this evening per radar, but a bit south.
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Yeah no, Ravens don't make the playoffs without Lamar. Do you know who their backup is? 8-9 won't cut it in the AFC. Mostly likely it will take 10-7 to get in. Ravens should be able to go 3-2, and finish 11-6. With Lamar ofc.
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Lake effect bust in Watertown so far. Forecast this morning for today was 11-17", and another 12-18 tonight. It's approaching 9pm and there is a couple inches of wet snow otg, roads are wet, and it isn't snowing lol.
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32 here at 840 This should be the coldest night of the Fall by a couple degrees.
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Warm trough. The kind that only produces 33 and rain. Chuck knows.
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Fucking Chiefs. Fucking Raiders.
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And also a few days later. Pretty persistent signals for those 2 windows.
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As it is the heaviest snow is south of us on that run, and as the center of that high shifts east the back end of the storm produces some snow in coastal NC and SC. Pretty cold.
