CAPE

I am overdue for a miss, so expecting nothing tonight. I got a precursor to the predecessor, the predecessor itself, was in the max qpf zone for the storm itself, had a brief deluge later that night, then the MCS with the incredible lightning show yesterday morning, with the worst flooding all week. A total of 6.7" since Monday night. Reseeding begins tomorrow.

I picked up a 4 pack of barrel aged Narwhal stout today too. Super good stuff.

Yup its 18%. And lol you need to do the "in moderation" thing. This is probably all I will drink tonight. Bang for the buck. One beer, but like drinking three 6% 'ers.

Thats where the best forcing is- along the weak front that lies across that area. Should sink SE, and some other cells may pop up out ahead of it this evening. Not sure how widespread it will be. Looks more scattered to isolated.

Happy Friday HH. I'm going big, boozy, fruity. DFH Fruitfull Fort. This stuff is so good and complex. Has elements of both the WWS, and the 120, as strange as that might seem.

Just noticed TT has the GEFS Para (v12 upgrade) available. It is higher resolution and has more members(31?) The 0z run goes out to 840 hours lol.

I guess we can hang our hats on solar min to possibly contribute to HL blocking in order to tilt the expected generally unfavorable pattern a bit more in our favor. IMO that correlation, along with the QBO, to negative AO/NAO episodes seems very nebulous. If I was making predictions I would not give either of those factors much weight, esp in what looks to be a Nina winter. Not sure what else we got though lol.

Excessive Rainfall discussion for the MA from WPC- Activity on Thursday was widespread and quasi-organized on larger scales. On Friday we may see lesser coverage and/or lesser longevity of individual storm clusters, as the upper trough continues to fill, experiencing height rises at its base over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic today. Sufficient heating of the still tropical airmass, however, is likely to lead to scattered initiation along sea breezes, over the mountains, and near a quasi-stationary front and inverted surface trough sitting over DE/MD/PA. Hi-res model consensus places the greatest concentration of rainfall over Maryland and southern PA to southern NJ, thus near and north of the surface front where both mid level and jet level forcing should contribute to somewhat greater lift compared to areas farther south. Models generally agree, and especially the various HRRR runs, that a flash flood threat could develop early in the morning as the tail end of a jet entrance region interacts with the CAPE gradient north of the front in Pennsylvania. Coverage of storms will then increase elsewhere by midday, with HREF odds of inch per hour rates peaking after 22Z in MD/DC/VA. The environment and model signal certainly support local rain rates nearing 2 inches per hour. Much of this region is quite saturated, to say the least, in the wake recent widespread heavy rain events. Once again, a lack of sustained forcing and the expectation of lesser coverage today is what keeps this event in the Slight Risk category, but wherever multi-inch rainfall occurs in urban areas or other sensitive basins, an isolated significant flash flood is possible.

More data on temperature tendencies during a La Nina winter. Certainly some variability, but you can see from these panels that a mean ridge in the east is pretty common. The problem with the years that are on the colder side, is they also tend to be dry for the SE and MA region due to dominant northern jets (Polar/Pacific).

From Mt Holly AFD this morning- It looks like two primary rounds of convection remaining. The first opportunity is for the remainder of the overnight through mid morning today. This comes thanks to another convectively enhanced vorticity impulse riding up along the stalled frontal boundary. Radar overnight has been very unimpressive so far, as it was yesterday afternoon and evening. Strongly suspect that the unexpectedly vigorous MCS on Thursday morning really did a number on the atmosphere, and that we still have not recovered. Mesoanalysis indicates at least some modest amounts of elevated instability in place early this morning, and plentiful low level moisture with PWATs from 1.5 to 1.9 inches, highest to the south. Shear is weak, and storm motions are very slow from the southwest. So heavy rain remains the greatest concern through the morning. Quite a bit of uncertainty in how widespread this round of convection will be given concerns about the instability; so far it is struggling to get underway, but will wait awhile longer before cutting PoPs for the coming hours. Where storms do develop, flash flooding remains a possibility given the slow storm motions, possibility of training storms, and saturated ground. The second opportunity for convection comes this afternoon and evening, into the early overnight. This time, the trigger will be a combination of the approaching trough from the west as well as a little more energy streaming up from the southwest. The bolded part is interesting, That was intense(and unexpected) here, and it expanded/strengthened as it moved towards coastal NJ.

1927

The Orioles are who we thought they were.

^ that was the year I moved down here from Carroll county. I was like- damn people said it doesn't snow much here? Really??? eta- that Superbowl Sunday storm is easily top 10 in my lifetime. Terrible game though.

Yeah you are right. It was 1988 that was Nina. Jan-Feb 1987 was sweet.

I pretty much said the same thing in my post above in response to Maestro's post. I have fond memories of 1986-87, esp Jan and Feb. Was that winter a cold neutral? I have seen some references to it as a weak Nina, but not sure that's correct. The latter half of the winter behaved more like a NIno IIRC. It also featured some decent HL blocking.

Sorry not laughing at you, but the bolded made me laugh. A SE ridge (and generally warmer temps along the east coast) is pretty typical in La Nina years, esp moderate to strong La Ninas. As always, other factors/indices will impact the overall pattern as well, so not like it's always a complete torch all the time. Lucky for us, this winter looks to feature a pretty weak event, and may end up being more of a cold neutral. Given our apparent "new normal" background state however, I would still expect frequent episodes of SE ridging, with the mean trough located out west.

Just be sure to only vote once.

Not that anyone should be based on what any of these climate models are depicting at this point, but this pattern should look familiar. Hard to bet against the 3 month DJF h5 mean looking something like this when all is said and done.

I am approaching 7" for the month here already. Mosquitoes have been a non issue so far due to the spring larvacide, but starting to see a few now, and those late summer tigers may become a problem. Could use a few days with no rain lol. I am going to start reseeding this weekend. I will do it in sections, and hopefully have all of Sept-Oct to get it established.

I'll overnight the sprinkler.

Winding down now. 1.52" Best electrical storm I have seen in years. Amazingly only one brief power blip.

Haven't heard/seen T & L like this for a long time here. Impressive.

Constant booming thunder with this line moving in. Sounds kinda vicious. I think I will wait it out and then head to work.

Yeah I thought about that, but not sure how well that would do in the woods either. As far as nitrogen, clover does well here, so I have taken that as a sign of nitrogen deficiency, but then I believe I read clover adds nitrogen to the soil. Either way I let the clover do its thing, as it likes to grow and it is green lol. I have added extra nitrogen while fertilizing, and never noticed any difference with the grass health.