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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
  2. CAPE
    EPS has the stronger shortwave like the op.
  3. CAPE
    For the initial storm, there is definitely a Miller B look among some members, with initial lower pressure to our NW- more so on the EPS. Given the advertised pattern the NS is going to be busy and as we get closer tracking wave interactions and timing is going to be 'fun' lol.
  4. CAPE
    Interestingly the 6z Euro has a much more distinct/sharper shortwave embedded in the flow at the end of its run. Something to keep on eye on for the 12z suite. Although Jan 4 has never looked like a big storm potential, hints for something minor have been there on some op runs and ens guidance.
  5. CAPE
    The 0z EPS has storm signals for the 6-7th and again around the 10th. Ditto for the CMC ens. Nice to see agreement on the same general timeframes. No details.
  6. CAPE
    Way out there and a little more diffuse but there is a signal for the 10th.
  7. CAPE
    The 7-8th potential storm on the 6z GEFS-
  8. CAPE
    That comes after our back to back snowstorms.
  9. CAPE
    Oh noes not that nasty jinx shit again. Ruins everything!
  10. CAPE
    Kinda close. But nothing quite compares to 2009-10 in the NA. Legit sustained atmospheric block that produced crazy results.
  11. CAPE
    Most impressive h5 look for that timeframe that I have seen on any guidance.
  12. CAPE
    Pretty nice h5 look leading into an approaching storm. And then the storm-
  13. CAPE
    12z also had a storm in the 10-12 time frame, also a bit further south.
  14. CAPE
    The advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles supports it. Good to see snowy outcomes on the op runs, albeit sporadically at this juncture.
  15. CAPE
    Yeah I'm always behind. WB lol.
  16. CAPE
    Up next-
  17. CAPE
    The evolution is generally similar to 12z. The low track is further NW- pretty obvious why comparing the upper levels between the 2 runs. Too far out to care much. Onward.
  18. CAPE
    Until there is a persistent discrete threat, this is probably about as good as it gets at this range over a 5 or 7 day window. Problem is it can go right back to looking paltry the next run, and it really means nothing wrt the upcoming potential.
  19. CAPE
    I knew you already did.
  20. CAPE
    Those maps are what they are. Not worth much other than maybe a relative indicator between runs at this range. Supports the idea of an active period with cold in place.
  21. CAPE
    I made reference to the Jan 6-10 period on my post this morning. That looks active on the 12z run as well. Yes those appear to be the 2 windows, give or take. A weenie might want to check the snow map for that period.
  22. CAPE
    12z EPS is similar to 0z with the Miller B idea for the 6th and another wave after that. Again looks very active.
  23. CAPE
    That dipole develops around the 4th this run and is initially too far south- suppresses the potential wave for that timeframe. Like where this is heading though.
  24. CAPE
    As the pattern progresses/gets colder these aren't the typical kind of GLs lows that will kill our thermals. There is going to be a lot of NS vorticity in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV. They can be either constructive or destructive to our hopes and dreams. Timing will be key.
  25. CAPE
    We got us a wave train on the 12z GFS lol.
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