CAPE

Looks like I got another 0.62" here yesterday. A bit over 11" for the month. St Michaels is over 18" for August.

Nice. I am in Luray. Wonder if it did anything at my house. I ran into one brief downpour driving out here, and a few light sprinkles. Otherwise sunny. Really nice here now.

I was looking at the US drought monitor. A lot of moderate and some pockets of severe up in NE. Nothing in our region, I would have expected to see some pockets of abnormally dry, but going back to July and early August I think it was generally wet for the entire area, despite some places missing out over the past 2-3 weeks. eta- there is a small area of abnormally dry in the far western highlands.

Some booming thunder in that new line that developed to my south. The general guidance was correct on jack-potting the southern third of the area.

My yard was on the northern part of the W-E oriented area of rain overnight, with the better convection to my south. Lots of long/ low rolling, house vibrating thunder from those storms. Rained pretty much all night, but never heavy. Picked up 0.65". 1.07" since Thursday evening, and 10.4" for the month.

Slight risk today. From the Mount Holly AFD this morning- With sufficient CAPE and fairly strong shear expected (30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk wind difference) along with alarmingly high values of storm- relative helicity (150+ J/kg), I am concerned storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. As alluded to, the threat is conditional on the degree of instability that develops, but the tropical nature of the vertical profiles suggests to me that CAPE will need not be that large to promote an environment favorable for organized/rotating storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms today across the entire region, and this seems reasonable to me.

Just looking at the upper levels on the GFS and Euro for this week. Pretty similar. Looks like several shots of rain, and maybe a lot of it. Remains to be seen exactly where, but our general area looks to be in the cross hairs.

Moderate rain here with a few rumbles of thunder. Perfect for watering the new grass.

If the NAM is correct, Saint Michaels may be close to 20" for the month by tomorrow. Sitting at 15.62" currently.

A snippet from the updated AFD from Mt Holly- Hot and humid into the early evening hours ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will continue to track east, and additional storms will fire up ahead of that main area. Temperatures remain in the 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, surface-based CAPE values are up around 2000 J/kg across Delmarva and from 1500-2000 J/kg across southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, DCAPE values are up around 1000 J/kg. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is minimal, generally around 25 kt, but up to 40 kt across far northern New Jersey. Finally, PWATs are from 1.5- 2.0 inches. Thunderstorms moving into the unstable airmass, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, will become strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most likely impacts.

Are you seeing a low level dust cloud kicked up as the heavy rain falls?

I didn't pay much attention to the mesos since it looked like all the action was going to be up north today. Nice surprise. Picked up 0.43"

Impressive storm blew up here. Wasn't expecting anything tonight. Gusty and pouring with some impressive T&L

I'm drinking a NE Hazy IPA from True Respite! It's good!

Too much inverted V. This will probably congeal nicely on the lower eastern shore.

Storms dropping southward to the east, storms dropping southward to the west... nada in between. Mostly what the latest runs of the mesos were advertising.

Just wait till winter.

Pretty good stuff here from Mt Holly- At 250 mb a subtropical jet was noted around KWAL with another ~90 kt speed max located over western Ontario. The subtropical jet is forecast to re-orient and center over the NC/ VA border. This would place the DELMARVA in a Left Front Quadrant (LFQ) or under upper level divergence. The northern stream jet is forecast to propagate east through the base of the trough axis and center over northern NJ. This would place central and southern NJ in a Right Rear Quadrant (RRQ), or upper level divergence. The jet structure isn`t completely coupled, but some interaction appears likely. At 500 mb strong height falls are occurring over central Quebec (~100 m) with mostly weak height falls across central NJ (~30 m). The overall idea is for this wave to continue to amplify as it digs southeast. The primary DCVA will be located over New England, and the northern Mid- Atlantic States. At 700 mb a weak wave was noted across the Great Lakes region and is forecast to continue to dive southeast towards WV and VA. Overall this wave feature appears to track too far south and west of the region to affect our area. Earlier this morning there was some precipitation that tried to move into the region from the west, but quickly fell apart. This has allowed for the entire CWA to be under mostly full sun for the entire day. As a result the entire area has destabilized, with the greatest destabilization being across the DELMARVA with ML CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A surface cold front is currently located across west/central NY into western PA and is heading southeast. The orientation of the cold front will slowly transition from SW/NE to more of a W/E orientation. Forecast soundings continue to advertise mostly unidirectional tropospheric flow with effective bulk shear values around 25 kts. The latest 18z KWAL sounding was slightly different than initially expected with a descent amount of dry air in the 300/500 MB layer. Lapse rates in the 500 to 700 mb layer were around 6.6 degrees C though, with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. The general idea is for convection currently in central PA to continue to head southeast towards MD and the DELMARVA. The anvil storm relative flow vectors with these storms is easterly, and this can clearly be seen on visible. As the anvil debris continues to spread east, cold pool reinforcement and amalgamations appear likely. This means the convection will likely continue to take on a more linear appearance. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging winds.

The damaging wind threat looks legit for later today where convection develops/propagates. Pulled this forecast sounding off the 3km NAM . Steep lapse rates in the low/mid levels, dry air aloft, impressive Dcape.

Excellent write up. The bolded is the bottom line, and pretty much what I expected would be the case. Another "thought". With SSTs basin wide on fire lately, can a weak Nina even produce the same sort of atmospheric response as it would have say 20 years ago? At some point you would think a sliver of slightly negative sst anomalies would get overwhelmed, and have about the same 'impact' on the atmosphere as a neutral/warm neutral ENSO... more variable/less "typical".

Excerpt from Mount Holly AFD this morning on tomorrow's potential- As we move into the day on Tuesday, the weather looks like it will become quite interesting. Guidance continues to indicate a convective complex should develop Tuesday morning.. . A stronger shortwave will track from the Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic quickly during the day and push the convective complex towards the southwest. Strong deep layer shear, and steering flow in excess of 40kts should lead to forward propagating storms. Equilibrium levels will be quite tall and so storms will likely become quite tall with >40kft echo tops possible. With quite a bit of instability out ahead of the lifting mechanism, up stream initiation looks likely. As was mentioned by the day shift yesterday, wet bulb zero heights appear to be too tall to see large hail, so the main threat for any severe will be strong to possible damaging winds.

Since it is pretty clear we are heading towards a weak Nina for the winter at this juncture, how many weak Ninas/cold neutrals(just to expand a bit) over say the last 50 or so years have featured a -AO/-NAO for at least a third of the winter? Not that this correlates to above normal snowfall because we already know it doesn't the majority of the time with a Nina. Just trying to gauge the prospects of at least somewhat mitigating what will probably be a less than favorable Pacific, to at least improve the odds for some decent cold periods, and perhaps luck into a few well timed fluke events. Not that we will ever actually see a -AO/NAO in winter again lol.

^See Orioles, this is what good teams do. Addition by subtraction. Take the financial hit. Move on.

Ravens are about to release Earl Thomas, unless they can trade him. That would be a big bust, given the 4 year deal, and that he was mediocre in year one last season, and also the big cap hit they will take. Probably his behavior more than his performance, although they are intertwined. Very undisciplined during games.

No I get that. I am working in sections, and have areas in different stages. The first section I did a couple weeks ago almost needs cutting now, and I don't water as often, but longer when I do. But as I have said here before, in general my soil is well drained and dries out quickly. I just loosened/turned over a new area yesterday to seed, and a few inches down it was pretty dry, despite over 9" of rain this month.