CAPE

Sunny here in Easton. Feels like mid June out there.

Another day around 80 with dewpoints in the 60s.

It will be interesting to see if the extended range GEFS is on to something, as it continues to advertise increasing h5 heights up top, and especially in the NAO domain towards mid November. Also keeps the Pacific (puke) in check. Some of the MJO forecasts have the tropical convection moving into the W Pac, and then possibly into Phase 8, so that may give some credibility to the idea of increasing high latitude h5 heights down the line.

The guidance continues to forecast lower heights up top on our side of the pole (+AO/NAO) going forward, which is not very conducive to getting cold air delivery into our region. Maybe by the end of next week we see a decent cool down with a flat ridge building in the western US, but that looks pretty iffy.

Outside of Sunday when we briefly get into a cooler E/NE flow, it wont feel much like fall for at least the next week. The eastern ridge quickly builds back early next week, with warmer temps.

Good ol' CFS at range.. December would be acceptable too, with a +PNA, and the -EPO taking shape. Not the likeliest of outcomes in a moderate Nina.

Patchy drizzle before 8am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

The 0z GFS says maybe..

Afternoon AFD from Mt Holly- The relatively quiet weather continues into early Saturday before the front finally approaches later Saturday bringing a chance of showers arriving from west to east late Saturday into Saturday night. Beyond this time the forecast grows increasingly uncertain as there are differences between the forecast models and from one model run to the next. But in the big picture, the baroclinic zone looks to set up along the east coast through early to mid next week as the front washes out or stalls over the area. Additional waves look to move north along it bringing chances for showers/rain most days as the pattern becomes more active and wetter.

Just my opinion, but I think it will take some -EPO episodes to save us from another generally crap winter. I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

Going high gravity for HH (surprise). DFH Fruit-full Fort.

Some legit heavy snow falling in the Minneapolis area currently. Webcams around there are crappy/lacking.

lol It's probably neutral, not that it matters at hour 816 on a GEFS run.

^That little blue spot off the MA coast is probably a blizzard.

Since we can, why not? The super duper extended GEFS looks blocky for much of November.

Surprise!

Its way out there, but this could be a hefty rain producer, with some potential for severe, and maybe some snow on the backside in the western highlands.

Meanwhile, nice thump of heavy wet snow today for Minneapolis area. First legit snowfall there I believe.

Euro won. Mid to upper 70s the rest of the week.

The NAO is notoriously unpredictable at long leads. One thing we have to go on is persistence. The NAO has been predominately positive during winter for many years.

Go back and read the previous few pages ITT. This has been discussed at length. Also I am not sure anyone is 'canceling' winter. Well maybe Ji has, but he doesn't count.

It will snow this winter. Projected mean patterns are just that. We normally get a few shots each winter. Last winter was an o-fer for most, and while it could happen again this winter, it probably won't. Nina winters don't often produce above avg snow, and can be super frustrating with the typical NS dominant flow/late developing coastals. I will say this again- the last 2 Ninas produced slightly below median, and slightly above avg snowfall here, respectively. Both produced big snowstorms(one was a blizzard) for the immediate coastal plain, with no blocking. Clearly better outcomes than the so called Nino and warm neutral of the past 2 winters for my yard. And yes, while DC-BWI and west missed both of those Nina events, it wouldn't have taken much for better outcomes in those areas. Ofc this is a imby business, so I don't care.

Replacing Yanda is impossible, but I didn't expect the drop off to be as significant as it has. Yesterday was a debacle. Defensively, they could use a pass rusher, but not sure there is anyone out there that they can afford/is an upgrade.(Suggs is out there) Totally agree on WR, and I have been saying this since the offseason. The Ravens have no big bodied targets who Lamar can throw downfield to and trust to make the contested catch. Boykin could be that guy, but he has not impressed at all so far. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up signing Antonio Brown if the passing game cant develop downfield with what they have on the roster. Also, Roman is getting a lot of heat from the fanbase, and I think it is probably happening internally as well at this point. His play calling has been a head scratcher, to put it nicely.

They wont beat the Steelers with the OL playing like is has been- not against that defense. Lucky for the Ravens, they have a bye this week, so they have time to try and fix some issues, then we will see if they can compete with the Steelers. All the pundits thought the Browns could, and they got destroyed.

That's the point I was making.