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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Thunder with constant flashing in the western sky.
  2. CAPE
    That bowing segment looks like its heading this way. Not sure what that means on Dec 31st lol.
  3. CAPE
    It's not that it is just establishing itself, it is the extreme nature of it as currently advertised. It looks like a classic omega block, where our typical NA blocks are more of the rex type. And it is displaced southward, with a busy NS feeding continuous energy into the vortex component- that may very well be overdone, but if not, some of these recent runs represent plausible outcomes.
  4. CAPE
    If this is it Chill is gonna have a visitor.
  5. CAPE
    18z Euro is a tick souther.
  6. CAPE
    Looks like it should have looked back in August, Sept..
  7. CAPE
    This time of year Siberia is just calm, dry, and brutally cold. No wind chill to speak of. We could experience a mini Siberia feel if we build a bit of a snowpack with Arctic cold in place, and get a clear, calm night..
  8. CAPE
    The Avocado brings snow plus Barney cold. Hellacious look.
  9. CAPE
    Would be fun
  10. CAPE
    lol moderate to heavy snow with temps dropping into the low teens on this panel
  11. CAPE
    OC chase for an inch+?
  12. CAPE
    I'm in
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    It is better. Wave timing.
  15. CAPE
    Right where we want it. What number is that in the weenie handbook?
  16. CAPE
    220, 221, whatever it takes.
  17. CAPE
    lol buries our shortwave in the SW and forgets about it.
  18. CAPE
    It de-amplifies a bit more than the 0z run as it comes east. A secondary low pops offshore. The confluence/convergence upstairs on the sw side of that NA vortex is going to have some impact. We want just enough.
  19. CAPE
    You should start a flizzard thread for the 4th.
  20. CAPE
    As always when we have a favorable pattern with cold available, our hopes and dreams hinge on wave interactions, timing, and spacing.
  21. CAPE
    At this point we just root for the foreigners Go Canada! Go Brits! Go Germany!
  22. CAPE
    That's also somewhat the problem for early next week on the GFS in particular. The 12z run has even more NS vorticity phasing in to the 50-50 at the exact wrong time- just ahead of the storm. Its becoming the gyre of doom lol.
  23. CAPE
    The Euro needs to stay the course, and be the correct outcome. We need this.
  24. CAPE
    One difference I noticed between the GFS and the Euro/CMC is the GFS de-amplifies the trough as it moves into an upper level convergence zone(flow velocity decreases)- note the area of discontinuity as the flow within the jet streak rounds the base of the trough and encounters the region just upstream of a strong jet streak associated with the massive vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. That weakens the lift as precip moves into our area. The Euro has a more continuous/favorable jet configuration at that same point with a stronger shortwave at h5 and heavier precip at the surface.
  25. CAPE
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