CAPE

Duh? Dude you are in fucking PA lol.

He has FB weather page called wintry mix.

The Brits like the souther track, but both are incrementally norther on the 12z runs.

10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians.

It's there, but gets stretched into a vorticity ribbon as a strong jet streak moves overhead.

That's the expectation at this range and and moving forward.

Its not a new feature, but the exact timing and location of it varies from run to run.

It's a delicate balance. The vorticity feeding the gyre is what flattens the flow and de-amplifies the wave enough to force it to track underneath.

Something to note about the synoptic setup for this storm is the absence of high pressure to the north. Without that feature in place we don't want to see the initial low become too amped and tracking to our NW with no wedge in place. Nice to see the GFS depiction of a weaker low as it tracks into WV with a secondary low to our south becoming more prominent.

This is the modeled snow from the 6z GFS for today so factor that in the the snow total maps.

GFS is adjusting towards the other guidance. Less amplified/weaker with the initial low and earlier secondary development.

6z GFS coming in souther.

Icon never leads the way. GFS is always wonky to some extent. This is exactly the sort of progression we want.

Like I said, Euro, as expected, is rock steady. Weenies happy again. Drink. ( I'm drunk)

Gorgeous. It looks like a brief relax in the block, with another episode developing, originating more from Scandinavia this time. Ens means have been hinting at this. NA blocks that evolve from Scandi ridging excite me.. 2009-10.

Look above. Strong jet streak increases vorticity below.

Yeah its not out yet. My post was in anticipation of it holding steady vs the apparent ICON led north trend, with the GFS also going that way. These run to run variations always happen at this range, and many folks seem to lose sight of the big picture. This pattern is supportive of a significant frozen event across the region, and its happening.

Not on WB

18z Euro, ever rock steady- the voice of reason- will stop the mini weenie panic lol. I never set a bar, so the previous simulations that produced 8-12" for my yard are just that. Pretty sure its gonna snow.

Looks a little wonky to me. Only very subtle differences at h5. Run to run change is nada from 12z to 18z. Chalk it up to 'noise', but given the relatively narrow N-S area where parameters align for heavy snow, pretty small changes can make a notable difference. This is how we roll almost always!

Eh I will take 12z all day over this run verbatim lol. Very nice run for the southern PA folks though.

GFS hangs onto the primarily low. Did this a bit at 12z but a little more pronounced this run. Not sure I buy it. Either way not a huge difference but explains some of the mixy issues getting closer for a time.

WWA up here for tomorrow for snow accumulation less than one inch tomorrow, and less than one inch tomorrow night. I expected 'half inch or less' wording, but ok. Mt Holly Kinda bullish- The bulk of the snow will fall across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia and nearby suburbs, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva. In these areas, around an inch to two inches of snow will accumulate. Will go ahead and issue an impact-based Winter Weather Advisory for these areas mostly since the bulk of this snow will fall around the time of the evening commute. A coating to under an inch of snow is possible north of Philadelphia.

Actual total eta- SBY to OC an inch+ is from the tomorrow night thing Same for N MD and DE on the GFS map