CAPE

Nice improvement on the 12z EPS in the EPO region compared to 0z at hour 294. More GEFS like.

I like this thread split already. We can look down the road at the modeled pattern and discuss it without upsetting some folks lol.

Really want it to be pretty strongly negative and well placed too.

This is an intriguing look. Would be plenty cold and offer storm chances. Gotta have that EPO ridge though.

I am fine with everything in one thread, but others seem to get annoyed with some of the more esoteric posts(SSWE) and discussion/analysis of LR/extended tools.' so it was a suggestion to alleviate that 'issue'. I get that it may quickly turn into a mess if people are not cognizant of what belongs where. Your call my friend.

Maybe just have a LR discussion thread(this one) and then make another one for identifying/discussing potential discrete threats inside 6 days. When we get inside 3 with a legit threat we can make a specific storm thread and jinx it.

That's at least 2 runs in a row.

We shouldn't be "afraid" to mention/discuss unfavorable pattern elements that show up on an ens run in a LR thread. Maybe we need fainting couches for those who are perpetually on the edge of panic in here.

Agree. That was mostly a subtle troll attempt on my part.

I think it varies. See plenty of GEFS stuff too. Maybe we need a little more Canadian. eta- see my first few posts this morning. I actually ignored the EPS. Then PSU did his little drive-by.

We see most of our snow when they are favorable, but that doesn't mean we always do. And we can get snow when they are mostly in the wrong phase sometimes too.

I like how PhillyWx has it organized- Winter Pattern Discussion Winter Storm Threats- Day 5+

Like I said in the thread, if we are going to keep the MR and LR together, its going to cause some "unrest" when the LR is brought up and it maybe doesn't look as favorable on some guidance. This honestly shouldn't be a big deal, because we all should know the caveats, and no qualifiers should be needed. That said, this is exactly why I suggested having 2 threads, but I understand the reluctance and that they both could become a mixed up mess.

Not me. I like what i saw on the GEFS for the 17th-24th, and hopefully beyond. I mean, we cant just pretend the EPS is the JMA, so it certainly needs to be discussed in a thread that includes discussion of the LR. I would prefer the LR talk be in its own thread, but that idea seems to be dead lol.

I am not buying into the EPS pattern evolution at this point, esp with all the stuff occurring wayyy upstairs. We should all be pros at "wait and see" on the LR by now, while continuing to track any potential threat that pops up in the medium range.

Yeah I get the great snow analogs and all with the big ass NE Pac trough, but that works better in a Nino, and the Pac jet has been on steroids in recent years. Our source region has been/is torched with Pac air, despite the favorable AO/NAO. It could still work given enough time, but the pattern is going to do what its going to do regardless. EPS does get some decent cold into our source region, and into the lower 48- its just focused out west beyond the next 10 days, and our friend the SER says HI. What we need is to strike a balance that is probably difficult to achieve in a Nina, and this is what the ens means are depicting with the trough retrograding and a developing ridge along the west coast and into the EPO domain. EPS now wants to make that idea transient and go full bore Pac ridge.

GEPS has the same idea as the EPS towards day 15.

Ha I just mentioned that. Is that still a thing?

This is what I am thinking as well. The PV voodoo docs seem to favor a reinforcement of the Strat-Trop coupling that has already been established, at least for a time. We are always playing with fire on the Pac side with a Nina. What's the latest on the weakening trend for late wither?

It has been trending that way for a few runs. Hopefully it is wrong or overstating the pattern shift. It is depicting what is typical for Nina though(Pac ridge/western trough), so I have been expecting we would see it at some point.

Why thank you. I try my best to make useful and objective posts with some weenie/humor mixed in. Gotta be able to laugh when you live where I do and enjoy winter weather.

The 6z GFS op has blue over our yards on the 18th and again on the 21st with a coastal storm, although it is a bit too far SE. Should be seeing more threats pop on the op runs now that we are within 10 days of what is looking like a very favorable period upcoming.

Scrolling through the p-type panels on the 0z GEFS members between the 16th and the 24th brought a smile to my face. Looking like legit chance(s) somewhere around or just beyond MLK day, which is exactly on schedule with the expected better/colder pattern.

The window of best opportunity has been identified for a while now. Most have probably gotten bored with regurgitating/reading the same stuff over and over, or whining about op runs with no blue pixels over their yards.

Truthiness: belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on intuition or perception, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.