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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    I am sure there are some complaining about this Euro run, but I wont.
  2. CAPE
    I do my pbp solo. What ya wanna know?
  3. CAPE
    That is an irrational fear lol. Not happening in this set up. It is almost a certainty we some some rain from this. Question is for how long. 12z GEPS looked quite a bit better than the op btw.
  4. CAPE
    Better than the last 2 runs. The Canadian really shat the bed for us. Just a complete torch. I went from hugging it to throwing it out of bed in one run.
  5. CAPE
    The thing is, its not always the same- esp here. Clean transfer and proximity of the low to the coast is key. Euro op is snow to slop to rain. EPS implies mostly snow and quite a bit more. In this case, I will favor the former until I see more evidence to the contrary on the GFS and Euro op runs.
  6. CAPE
    It seems to have died on WB.
  7. CAPE
    Yes, Very similar to 18z overall, and to be fair the 0z run was good too, just not as good over this way. I need to see the op with the coastal in a better spot now.
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    Not bad.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah that was a really good run. Lets hope the 'trend' continues.
  11. CAPE
    I think the Leesburg dudes will still be high fiving today. Except for Ji ofc.
  12. CAPE
    Location.
  13. CAPE
    A few inches of snow is fine with me. I am not picky given how awful it has been the last couple years. But what is being advertised now would result in whatever falls immediately going to slop and melting, then maybe some light snow showers on the backend. Up your way you have a decent chance to escape the boundary layer torch. Me? I hug the Canadian lol.
  14. CAPE
    Thanks, good info. This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.
  15. CAPE
    Ok I feel better now. GFS has done well with our miss to the south. Euro had weak sauce for many runs down there before it caved. Not sure about the CMC.
  16. CAPE
    The warming is legit on the GFS and Euro for the coastal plain. Gotta hug a CMC like solution. Too bad its the worst model.
  17. CAPE
    @JakkelWx Biggest problem on the Euro is we dry slot. Surface up to 850 is marginal for a while but the light precip is a killer. At least we don't have to worry about our digital snow disappearing in the next couple runs lol.
  18. CAPE
    That looks a lot better than reality over here. Verbatim it rains for 12-15 hours. All guidance has the warming both at the surface and aloft along and mostly east of I-95. The broader issue is the Arctic air is moving out and this system takes forever to evolve. The front end thump part is good. eff the damn coastal lol.
  19. CAPE
    CMC has hours and hours of rain east of I-95 with the coastal, before flipping back to snow. It would wipe out the front end thump.
  20. CAPE
    CMC rolls out slower on WB.
  21. CAPE
    I agree. Still seems an unlikely outcome as depicted. Maybe it ends up just a thump/drizzle/dryslot, which I am fine with, but it is hinting at something more with that odd, delayed back end. Maybe that part just goes away.
  22. CAPE
    GFS is still trying to find its way. It ain't going down like this verbatim. Still, it manages to give most of us 4-6", albeit with some rain and drizzle mixed in there.
  23. CAPE
    Probably not, but someone requested it, and someone else said it wasn't the case.
  24. CAPE
    Its a good low track, but the temps are toasty on the mean once the coastal gets going.
  25. CAPE
    The problem is that is not likely an option either in this set up with the primary. The front end thump/dry slot is close, but that still ends up with a bit of mix/rain for some areas. I would take it. And ofc the waa precip could end up somewhat suppressed lol. Never easy. I guess that makes the tracking more interesting.
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