CAPE

Give it a few more runs.. I love those Canadians, so my hopes and dreams are alive.

I love when you talk technical.

It was a wintry period, and had snow otg for 4+ days, Day 3 with snow cover here now, but most of that will be gone with the mild temps today.

The problem here is after the WAA part, almost all of Monday was light rain/drizzle and temps in the mid 30s. Got another inch Monday night.

I just want to actually get snow from back to back events. Snow on snow. A total of 4-5" would be fantastic. I would probably take off Thursday and Friday and be out hiking like a mofo.

Agree, It would be best to only post the silly snow maps and say yayy for mby!!!!

It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you.

Its not a problem out where you are. The further east you go, the more influence from that dry tongue to the NE.

I will gladly risk getting some sleet, vs all snow and pathetically light accumulations.

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

Latest take from Mount Holly- Models continue to trend more suppressed and weaker with the southern-stream trough, owing to continued confluent midlevel flow from amplifying troughing in far eastern Canada. As a result, the QPF shield has shifted so that the maximum axis is generally in the southern half of the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday. Large-scale lift will be somewhat weak, so snow rates should be light to modest at best. Nevertheless, temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow in virtually all of the CWA. By Thursday, current snow totals of 1-3 inches are fairly widespread south of I-78, with the highest amounts generally south of I-76. A second round of snow may occur as a stronger vort max approaches the East Coast on Thursday night and Friday. The NAM has trended well south with this, mostly keeping QPF out of the CWA. The ECMWF has trended this way as well, though to a much less extreme extent. The GFS and CMC, meanwhile, are farther north and provide another round of light snow to much of the area. By Friday, widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible across the area, with highest confidence for the southern half of the CWA. The model trends continue colder for this period as well, given the lingering influence of the surface high to our north. This suggests the event will be primarily snow for the CWA, with any mixing likely to occur in far southern Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Forecast temperatures were kept lower than consensus, and mainly weighted toward colder raw guidance, which tends to perform best in these regimes. Though the snow will generally be light, the sufficient cold and longer potential duration suggest meaningful impacts appear likely for our forecast area.

Gotta love these northern Carroll county dudes though. They should have their own subforum.

LOL. Euro is way snowier for the majority of the region.

I never said I buy it lol. Just commenting on what the run is depicting.

Too sleety here.

Me neither.

Ji needs this trend to stop immediately.

This doesn't seem like a particularly juicy setup to me. If there are in fact 2 waves that hit the same area, then yeah maybe there will be some 8" amounts. Cant say I can recall seeing this happen before in a configuration like this(and be all snow), but certainly not impossible.

Even an occurrence like that is unusual. My wag is the first one is a flush hit for the northern third of the region and a bit mixy south, and the second one is somewhat suppressed, but hopefully not a whiff.

Not a chance it plays out like the Euro is currently depicting. That said, it would seem there is a pretty good opportunity for some frozen this week.

If the Euro is right it is essentially a continuous 4 day deal capped off by an ice storm. Could just modify the date part of the storm thread and make it 10-14.

Yeah I guess it comes down to how one defines "big storm". I think it is dumb to state that winter would be a fail or disappointment if it doesn't meet what ever that criteria is, if it manages to exceed climo snowfall say with multiple light/ moderate events. To each their own though.

I knew having both starting tackles out would be problematic against that defensive front, but still that was a thorough beatdown of a prolific offense. Ofc all you are going to hear in the post analysis is GOAT GOAT GOAT!!!!! Yeah we know, he is good.

WB sucks even worse than it used to.