CAPE

High of 90 here, with dewpoints low 70s. Pretty hot and humid. Bit of a breeze out there now.

It does. Truth is we still have plenty of particulates in the air these days. The east coast haze is usually the result of heat and humidity- plenty of water vapor and pollutants congealing, along with stagnant conditions. Pretty good cap today up around 850 mb and weak low level flow, so it cant mix out.

Definitely got the hazy skies today. High dews and not much vertical mixing.

18z NAM. Pretty similar to Euro with track/placement of heavier rains.

If iirc, a -AO is primarily correlated to colder winters (for DC), with -EPO being the next best option. For snowfall, have to look at ENSO state (and other factors) in conjunction with what's going on in the high latitudes. Not sure on the clipper thing- we had our share of those type systems in 2013-14 (and maybe the following winter) with the EPO ridge, I think? I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

We don't necessarily want a strong Nino (or Nina) here. We got lucky in 2016 with a 7-10 day moderately cold period and the odd blocking event that set up. Otherwise that would have been remembered as a wall to wall warm and mostly snowless winter.

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase.

I do agree with this. Everything else evolving the same way without the -AO/NAO, and it would have been a disaster. We did get unlucky with the SWE/PV disruption when the blocking shifted and the TPV lobes dug further west. That was the one time we could have had legit cold here, and instead we sat under an upper ridge with warm air aloft, while Houston froze.

lol more like one. unless you count Jonjon, and out there none of this stuff matters much. He will see 100"+ regardless.

It did some good- 12" of snow here, (or even there where you are) is perfectly respectable these days. But typically with the AO persistently negative as it was, we have a mechanism for delivery of Arctic air. Canada was so anomalously warm though due to modification from the Pacific.

Even when it snowed or I got sleet/zr here temps were marginal. Not a single temp in the teens here last winter, even with snow on the ground and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Cant recall that happening in recent memory. The only legit cold air that made in deep into the US last winter went west of us, and we got the stale moderating air from that that produced the sleety/icy period.

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

The only thing worth discussing at this juncture is ENSO. Looking like neutral or weak Nina is favored. Ofc ENSO state doesn't seem to matter much lately, wrt our sensible weather in winter.

Disaster

My house and the "cleared" area surrounding it is right in the middle of the woods. The area that amounts to my back yard is essentially atop the septic drain field, with acres of hardwoods completely surrounding it. I am only trying to maintain "nice grass" on that rectangle just behind the house, which has been reduced by enlarging the mulch areas and adding a firepit with surrounding mulch bed and plants. The small clearing out front and on the north side I have let the moss take over and whatever else grows there. Some random grass, but mostly various weeds.

Lets continue this discussion in the Lawn/garden thread.

Too much competition with the trees ultimately seems to be the primary issue. Its not lack of water. I have used the most heat resistant/drought tolerant blends and still makes no difference. I reseeded using mostly Jonathan Green Black Beauty "Sunny" tall fescue last Fall. Used their Ultra on the shadier side. Grass does well here through early June, then you start seeing the signs. I have patches now where the grass has given up- brown and quickly withers away to thatch. That will only expand over the next few weeks. Like you, I end up with mostly weeds.

HH GFS

84 here. A tad humid but not awful. That comes tomorrow.

I started reseeding in mid August last year. Soil is nice and warm and the sun angle is low enough at that point. Being in the woods, I need the grass to get established before the leaves start raining down.

I have tried everything. I let it grow and only mow it to 4" starting in June. This time of year with the high sun most of my "yard" gets blasted with sun for 6 hours plus. But yeah the soil is a silty/sandy loam with no clay and it is excessively well drained. My grass area is surrounded by woods, so the tree roots are sucking the moisture and nutrients from below. I have tried literally every type/brand/blend of cool season tall fescue. Beginning to think with the shifting climate it may be time to try a warm season grass. Barely gets below 25 here anymore lol. Actually, I want a hardscape. So done with grass.

My grass is starting to burn up, right on schedule lol. No amount of rain will save it- I had over 8" here last July and it didn't matter.

Looks like we might get into an area of subsidence on the west side of the remnants of Elsa as it passes offshore. That may somewhat negate chances for widespread showers/storms as the front approaches from the west.

oops..

The weather this coming week looks similar to last, but probably not as hot. Heat and humidity will be on the increase after today. With a trough developing over the OV, and a HP over the WA, looks like another slow moving frontal boundary late week with plenty of moisture in a SW flow. Possible heavy rain threat again Thursday into Friday. Any impacts from Elsa TBD, but latest runs of the GFS depict a rapidly weakening low over the SE that dissipates.