CAPE

I think I am past that with the Ravens after the AFC championship last year. Buffalo will be tough, the weather will be bitter and probably windy. If they lose playing 'their game' and don't make a bunch of mistakes and give it away, I will be ok with it. I'll root for the Bills to beat the Chiefs, who have become pretty damn annoying.

Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens.

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC- Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Day 3... A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability. This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4" going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia and points northeast in the periods beyond.

Kinda splitting hairs here. The 6z Euro has 4-6 along I-95, and a little less NW and SE.

Well it flipped(or flopped) in conjunction with the GFS. What do we make of this?

Yeah that may be increased depending on the next few model cycles. Their general thinking I believe is that the push of Arctic air will favor coastal development more southward/offshore.

I get what you are saying, but there are always multiple variables at play that factor in to the ultimate outcome. In this case it is more where the thermal boundary is located vs a more amped wave. The flow is relatively flat and west to east, and the vorticity is stretched out accordingly, underneath an upper level jet streak. Compare the vorticity on the 6z GFS and 6z Euro runs. No real dig in either case, and a subtle difference in the boundary location. For all practical purposes their outcomes are the same. In this situation the heavier snow(such that it will be) could be biased a bit NW or SE.

12 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 16. Clear skies, no wind, and snowpack.

A little lol. Other people still reply. I don't ignore, I just take a break when regulars get edgy and randomers show up.

Odd compliment. There is context to my post going back to last night. I think it's probably unlikely we see an amped wave in this situation with warning level snow. Everything looks progressive to me. Could be wrong. Go look at the members on the 0z EPS run.

Anyway I will bow out for awhile. It's that time of the winter.

You're an asshole as usual. Maybe read the thread before making dumb post.

And the heavier snow is south and east. @psuhoffman

A stronger piece of vorticity pops a surface low sooner/a bit closer to the coast.

EPS looks pretty good. Throwing out the CMC, this looks like a weak wave moving along an Arctic front with the potential to produce a quick hitting minor snow event, with legit cold coming in on the heels.

MV3

This logic seems silly. This is the best Euro run of the last 4. You mean if it was a bit further SE there wouldn't be that 4"+ 'jackpot'. Come on lol. That 4-5" area easily could be a bit further NW, or SE, depending on the exact location of the boundary, sharpness of the shortwave and associated dynamics. etc.

I'll take it. The last few runs are all "weak". This is not going to be a significant event. A little snow before the Arctic blast is fine.

DeCosta is so good lol

As it has been for the most part.

People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!! There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles.

High of 30. Currently 27. Still 95% snow cover in my wooded abode. Driving in the open areas there are some large bare spots in places mostly due to the perpetual wind thinning the snowpack, plus the sun doing its thing.