CAPE

Dry isn't drought. Its relative. I don't want 4" of rain in March, and there are considerations other than snow. I had a great January here, so while I wont complain about some wet snow in the next couple weeks, it's not like something I live for. Rooting for big qpf going forward is rooting for rain, even in your yard. It's Spring dude.

Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder.

Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps?

I hope it stays dry for the next month. The water table has just broken the surface in my seasonal wetland- just a couple random shallow puddles. Easier to larvicide if it doesn't get too expansive.

Saturday looks like a wild day weather wise regardless. Warm, wind, maybe thunder, then sharp drop in temps. Maybe we can get some snow showers with the front but with the progressive look, any low that might form along the front as the cold comes in would probably end up too far east. That GFS run with the perfect phase and sharp negatively tilted trough would have done it, but it now looks similar to the Euro, although not quite as positively tilted.

Hope it came back quickly. GFS has fully caved, as we knew it would.

The Wed deal looks like classic snow tv. Very marginal low level temps and warm ground with no mechanism to bring colder air in at the surface other than elevation + rates. No one should be paying much attention snow maps as the ratios will probably be something like 5 or 6:1 for places where it manages to accumulate. The positive snow depth change map on the 3km NAM would probably be close to reality.

HH GFS looks just a tad different for next weekend lol. Almost a full cave to the Euro/CMC depiction.

Progressive flow continues to rule. Not expecting the GFS to score a coup here given its recent issues at range, but who knows. Sometimes everything does align and time perfectly. We definitely need a HL/NA atmospheric block up in here. Maybe next year, with a Nino.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD regarding Friday into the weekend.. A robust cold front approaching from the west is expected to pass through eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey around Saturday morning. The boundary will likely bring additional showers along with a sharp drop in temperatures. A drying trend and below normal temperatures are anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday. Doesn't seem like they are too concerned with the GFS idea, and to be fair it is not depicting a major snowstorm, but it is markedly colder/more wintry. Either way their thinking is some showers followed by a cold front, much like the Euro/CMC depiction.

In some species of mosquitoes the adults hibernate and survive winter, so a day or 2 in the 70s will likely bring them out.

The Euro and CMC(and their ensembles) are sticking with the warm-wet followed by cold-dry outcome for now. Check out the Euro vs the GFS for Sat afternoon. It is snowing moderately on the GFS here with falling temps verbatim, while the rain is pushing east and the cold front is about to move through on the Euro.

73 here. I see bugs.

A tad lol. GFS gets it done with fine precision- the timing, the dig, the tilt, and it leaves nothing behind. I'm confident that will work out.

12z Canadian, compared to the 12z GFS at h5..

The GFS is phasing the NS energy with the southern vorticity sooner, and leaving no energy behind, so the trough is sharp and goes neutral then slightly negative, which allows a surface low to form and and track up along the coast. The CMC and Euro don't have that clean interplay and the trough is broader and positively tilted, so any low that forms just gets shunted out. The GEFS is a little in between, but given the character/orientation of the trough and the location of the coastal low(offshore) depicted on the mean, it is leaning more progressive.

Some pretty good thunder here all of a sudden. Looks like a decent cell mostly just to the north. Getting a good downpour at the moment.

Would be nice to see the other globals to move towards the GFS idea. We shall see.

It's uncertain how much qpf this will even generate. Looks like a fairly weak wave, and the GFS keeps the precip mostly south. We know the deal this time of year- weak lift/light precip and marginal temps is a non starter.

The midweek deal looks a little underwhelming.

The Euro has temps into the 60s next Saturday, with heavy rain showers ahead of the front, then the cold comes in later in the day, while the GFS has temps falling into the 30s with a developing coastal low and rain changing to an accumulating snow. Some modest support on the GEFS. Kinda hard to buy into the GFS idea given how progressive the longwave pattern looks, and ofc its recent track history with being overly aggressive with the cold.

GFS/GEFS is back to emphasizing low pressure along the coast, in contrast to the Euro/CMC, which have a low tracking to our NW late week. I mentioned the best chance for frozen looked like it might be Saturday with some sort of coastal development, and the 6z GFS does exactly that. GEFS still hinting at it. CMC and EPS ens indicate some sort of trailing low but looks very progressive.

As I discussed in my previous post, this may be the period for the highest probability for frozen in our area from mid week through next weekend. This is clearly the most favorable window on the 18z GEFS. As for the midweek 'threat', it is still there but imo it is marginal at best, and the most likely outcome will be some showers for the coastal plain and if the wave tracks far enough north, maybe some wet snow or rain/ snow mix for NW areas. Doesn't look like anything too significant to me at this point, but I could be wrong. Sorry CMC huggers.

Beautiful evening for a few drinks around the firepit.

Looking over the latest ensemble runs for the Friday-Saturday deal.. the GEFS took a major step towards the Euro/EPS and CMC ens in emphasizing a primary low tracking into the OV and NW of our region. Something to watch(and maybe the best chance for frozen with this event the way things look right now) is a developing coastal low later Saturday as the colder air comes in. Hard to tell on the ensembles if this is due to trailing energy on the front, or a low developing offshore of the coast in response lowering h5 heights as the main trough approaches. Probably the latter. The ops are pretty messy looking with the vorticity at h5, and it will change, so not worth further analysis at this time, at least from me lol.