CAPE

BYOB at the Pub in Easton. Good as always. Won't be eating much of anything the rest of the day.

The high impact winds will develop later this afternoon and persist into tonight. Hoping the 60 mph gusts in my forecast don't materialize. I have enough outside stuff to do without having to clean up tree debris. At least the soil is pretty dry.

Pretty impressive looking vorticity lobe at h5, and pressure gradient between the deepening low moving off the Maritimes and high pressure building in from the NW.

Mount Holly is still bullish on the damaging wind potential as well. A strong weather system remains on track to affect the region on Friday. We are expecting very windy conditions from early Friday afternoon through much of Friday night. Gusts over 45 mph are likely, and gusts to near 60 mph are possible. Scattered instances of downed trees and power outages are also expected, especially given many trees are now bearing leaves. This will likely be an impactful event. Very little change in the forecast philosophy this cycle. A cold front will be offshore by Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough and associated vort max will rotate through the region during the afternoon hours, which will also send a reinforcing cold front through. This is a dynamically impressive system, with very strong height falls expected in the local area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The approaching shortwave and good jet dynamics will also yield rapid intensification of low pressure departing into the Canadian maritimes, with its pressure dropping near to below 980 mb. At the same time, high pressure will be moving into the Great Lakes, which combined with the deepening low to the northeast will create a very strong pressure gradient, maximized over the mid-Atlantic.

Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly- West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

@frd ninja'd me on the wind potential. Reading the thread is sometimes good.

We do heat, and we do wind.. The stronger synoptic low and cold front will approach the area Thursday night as the initial main trough axis races quickly from the Great Lakes late Thursday and then offshore by Friday morning. impressive height falls will result in a rapid intensification of the surface low as it moves off the New England coast by midday Friday. Southwesterly winds should start to increase overnight Thursday night as the surface low draws near. This will keep temperatures mild as well, with lows around 60 degrees. The strong cold front looks to cross the area around daybreak Friday with temperatures and dewpoints falling in its wake. In the wake of the front, a secondary vorticity lobe (stronger than previously expected) is forecast to dive quickly south across the region. This will be accompanied by a low-level surge in cold air advection as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten behind the departing and intensifying low. West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as a result, especially into the evening hours, as mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels. Models indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-45+ kts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts potentially increasing to the 45-50+ mph range during the evening hours. At this point, a Wind Advisory seems probable for at least some if not most of the area, but given the major shift in the forecast, confidence is not particularly high on the details of this strong wind threat at this time. We will continue to monitor this threat.

J-hot J-hot A-hot S-less hot O-warm this is how we roll.

Looks like 2, maybe 3 days of 80s this week depending on timing of the cold front, then we cool to more typical temps for the weekend. Guidance has another upper ridge building over the east next week, which would again boost temps to above average- into the 80s, maybe a 90 at DCA as currently depicted by the GFS.

Looking like upper 80s for the coastal plain on Wed.

Well timed rain event. Didn't start raining until after 8 pm, and it's looking like it will be out of here pretty early. Hopefully the sun will break out by early afternoon. Decent soaking here. 1.12". Just some light rain/drizzle currently.

Might as well- you are going to have lots of it lol.

39 this morning. Currently up to 44. Looking forward to upper 60s.

Take a short trip to Milton. The Brewery has aged 120 min IPAs and WWS at the shop there. Singles or a 4 pack.

Get out and enjoy tomorrow. Things go down around the dinner hour. Looks like an inch+ here per most guidance.

Its conceivable the ravens could now select an a impact WR and a bigtime edge rusher with their first 2 picks. Then they can address the OL holes as there are a bunch of quality lineman in this draft.

WWS for Friday HH.

Yeah we will see. Ravens usually know what they are doing. They could have forced Brown into playing this coming season- not like he would hold out as it is the final year of his rookie deal and he would become a FA. He would have everything to play for. But then he would just walk and the Ravens get one compensatory pick. This is probably a good trade. In addition to the the first round pick, they get a 3rd(swapped their second) and a 4th, as well as a fifth next year. Pretty good haul as long as they make the additional picks next week count. Need immediate contributors.

34 for the low here with some scattered frost.

Dw, DC will probably hit 90 by the middle of next week- equally as stupid.

My Neighbor Simcoe Hazy IPA from Black Flag for HH.

That line blasted through here in a hurry. I was in Easton, but home now and some small tree debris all over. Might have been some small hail. The storm was warned. 0.32" in the rain gauge.

Some clearing here now after clouds and showers earlier. 0.22". Temp up to 55. Was 52 before the sun came out. March day for sure.

I think I will skip the beer tonight lol.

Well, I didn't escape without the side effects. Slept fine and felt fine this morning, then randomly got the chills- about 18 hours after the shot. Felt very lethargic, mild muscle aches, and headache. Just laid around all day until about an hour ago. Lasted about 6 hours. Not sure how typical that is, but it kinda ruined my plans for the day doing outside stuff lol.