CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week.
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I was just looking at that. Basically 6 or so members have blues/pinks across the area for next Friday. Something to watch.
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Plenty active and a little bit of everything going on there lol.
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Its all still pretty much scattershot on the members at this range but this is the best 24 hour window on the 6z ens mean that has a combo of cold in place with precip.
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This is the primary one- just put in a little effort yourself first and if you can't find the answer then ask in the threads. Don't come across as if everything is a mystery.
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There were more EPS members than GEFS that 'like' this period on the 0z runs.
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After the storm mid next week likely tracks to our NW, seeing hints on the means of a west to east tracking wave along the boundary with colder air in place next Friday-Sat (25th-26th). There are a handful of members on the 0z EPS and GEFS with frozen for that period, while the op runs have another storm tracking to our NW towards next weekend. This is probably the period to watch for 'better trends', and it may just evolve into more of a threat for a couple days later.
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No one is attacking you. The manner in which you preface your posts often leaves you open to being poked at a bit though. Thicker skin.
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Need some more big trends. Realistically I think the next 8-10 days are toast. The very end of the month is where the pattern looks to become manageable. Always subject to change ofc, but I would bet it's more likely to be delayed if anything.
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Agreed. The general look on the means at h5 is conducive to cold pressing and a wave or 2 tracking along the boundary. Not complicated. Early March is probably the first chance, even though the GFS op teased late next week. Probably too soon. GEFS still suggestive of a cutter. Might be a good thing for a few days later.
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Only 10 days away!
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12z GFS suggesting we might have an event to track before the month is out.
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That is pretty remarkable. I can think of 7 times since 2016 roads were plowed here right off the top of my head, and there were probably a couple more.
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That's hard to believe given the number of 'plowed events' I have had here in that span. I get the UHI there but still. That said, I think his area has been pretty unlucky lately- probably completely missed several good events I had here and got fringed/missed by others that were good further inland.
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Just looking at some photos from 2015- what a great period that was from mid Feb to mid March. The classic back loaded winter.
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Early March of 2015 after a significant snowstorm- 6" here I think- I had a morning low right around zero, might have been -1.
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We were the 2 top posters in that thread I think with not much to show for it lol. These 'events' tied to small scale features pay off for relatively few.
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low of 14. pretty cold considering no snow otg here.
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0z GEFS brings some pretty respectable cold air south and eastward.
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March 1-3 is probably our next tracking window.
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28 currently after a high of 30.
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I posted a similar h5 map from around the the same timeframe off the EPS yesterday and I got at least a couple I think some people have a hard time interpreting a smoothed mean (understandably), and also context matters.
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He rolls with the D10-15 snow probability maps.
