CAPE

Outside of a Modoki Nino with persistent HL blocking, getting snow is a crapshoot, and we mostly score with fluky/well timed events east of the highlands. The big EPO ridge winter of 2013-14 was fluky, despite having some significant cold around. Could have easily been a lot of cold and dry, mild and wet with a general lack of NA blocking. The coastal plain doing well last Jan when the pattern shifted to colder (while inland NW areas mostly missed out) was pretty fluky. Multiple scrapers that could have easily been fish storms and complete misses everywhere. We just can't know, esp not now lol.

There will be a threat for warning criteria snowfall, and you will track it.

What do you think lol? It's August and we want a tool that gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be in January. Outside of Enso, there isn't much else that's worth a damn at this juncture.

CFS is on one of its good runs lately. There's hope!!

87/73 here currently. High was 90.

A local AFD will feature the phrase "uncomfortably dry".

I got weenied a few weeks back by a couple posters in the July LR thread for suggesting that late July/early August would likely feature typical peak summer weather, and nothing extreme. Warminstas be serious about the big heat tho, even when it only 'exists' on a GFS op run 300 hours out.

87/72 Sultry.

Yeah pretty typical heat the last few weeks. More humid than hot. I think I hit 94 one day here, but other than that its been mostly mid to upper 80s and a few low 90s. The high dews make it gross if you have to be outside physically doing something.

Perhaps an extended period of normal/below normal temps, and some days with reasonable dew points for mid month period.

This looks refreshing.

Need a little phase shift.

A couple downpours today added up to 0.35" Up to 3.1" since last evening.

A shot I took about a half mile from my house driving home from Centreville. Ended up with a quarter inch from this pulser that mostly missed to my SW.

Lost an oak tree last night. Snapped off a couple feet from the ground. The wind was probably 40 mph at most, so it had some issue. I already have 2 stacks of wood that are seasoned and need to be split. Plenty of firewood for the next couple years.

Had another round behind the main event. Total of 2.76". After getting next to nothing over a 2+ week span with multiple high probability chances for significant rain, this happens on a day where the forecast called for a 30% chance of a tenth or less lol.

Its been nice not having any skeeters. The late summer variety can be nasty and stick around through our second summer well into October. Delicate balance here.

2.35" Tomorrow is supposed have the much higher chance for heavy rain here. Might have to root for failure now.

1.85" and still going. Might be time to start the annual grass reseeding project this weekend.

Super impressive lightning with this. Maybe the best of the summer here. Pouring too. A bit of a surprise. Models weren't all that impressed this morning. Seemed it would be more isolated and pulsy.

Getting noisy out there. A deluge would be nice. Been pretty boring lately.

Had a random, sudden downpour around 2am. Lasted maybe 5 mins, resulting in 0.15".

0.11" we drought.

Second summer begins in one month.

My teaching load is variable, but this summer and early Fall it is higher than its been since COVID started. Plus I am developing a new course. Looking forward to November and December more than usual.