CAPE

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

1.45" here since Wed afternoon. No complaints.

It would just look pretty much the same, but no green. Early Feb a couple years back.

Euro has done fine. The nature of the airmass/weak steering flow the prior days was such that no global model was going to perfectly nail the locations that were deluged. It has actually been darn near spot on for my yard though.

Looks like a stellar run of weather ahead, especially behind the cold front that will move through early next week. Cool mornings, low dews, sunny days with highs around 80.

0.80" today. 1.16" total since yesterday.

Discussion- ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic... A broad and slow moving mid/upper level trough will result in scattered to widespread convection today from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic. The environment will be conducive for very heavy rainfall rates. PWs are above the 90th percentile, and wet bulb zero heights ranging from 12-14k AGL are pretty much as high as you will see in early June over this region. Thus efficient warm rain processes will likely dominate today/tonight. Instability is likely a limiting factor for depth/intensity of cells...however the aforementioned moisture parameters would still favor shallow low topped cells capable of very heavy rain rates. The other limiting factor is longevity of cells at any one location...as cells should generally pulse up and down rather quickly. The weak instability potentially restricting the coverage of heavier cells, and the short lived nature of most cells, may prevent a more widespread flash flood risk today/tonight. However slow cell motions and heavy short duration rates will likely still be enough to result in scattered flash flooding. There is certainly some potential for a more widespread and significant event today over portions of WV and VA given the efficient environment in place. A backdoor front dropping southwestward will be a convective focus today, potentially helping sustain a corridor of cell mergers...as it interacts with terrain induced cells and slow moving cells downstream of the front. The event today/tonight has Moderate risk potential over portions of WV/VA...but a bit too much uncertainty on the coverage/magnitude of impacts to go with the upgrade at this point. At the minimum we are expecting isolated to scattered flash flooding today. At the worst we could be dealing with more numerous flash flooding, some of which could be locally significant. We will continue to monitor trends through the day.

looks ready for the old bay and vinegar.

Ensembles have been advertising this pattern for awhile now, and its still looking good. Hard to beat an h5 longwave look like this for the middle part of June.

From Mount Holly AFD- Several hires CAM`s are indicating that the storms will evolve in sort of three waves. The first, has basically already occurred with storms that developed across DelMarVA. These storms began to interact with each over and one ended up having its outflow run into a developing updraft producing several funnel clouds over Delaware this afternoon. The outflow boundaries from these storms will start to propagate north across SEPA and central Jersey through the rest of the afternoon as the forcing remains weak over the region. Heading into this evening the cold front should eventually start to slide south out of NY and will become the trigger for the third round of convection this evening and overnight. The good news is that precipitable water values should decrease considerably tonight behind the cold front. Thus, expect the risk for heavy rain to decrease by late this evening.

Decided to pop open the 2008 vintage WWS. It's more complex, with more dark fruit notes. Alcohol is barely noticeable. Even with a hard pour, hardly any head though. Almost flat. Not sure if that is typical of a 12 yo beer lol. It is tasty, but I like a bit of carbonation.

Managed to catch a piece of the back edge of all that convection moving southeast through DE. Been frustrating here the last few days missing everything. Rained for less than 15 mins and picked up 0.34" . At least I am on the board.

I had a few drops at some point overnight. Registered nothing in the rain gauge. Probably a slightly better chance over here today, but again not really much of any forcing to initiate lift, so most likely storms will pop due to terrain influences, and along local boundaries. Maybe right along the bay and the immediate coast if a sea breeze develops.

I am letting my turf type tall fescue grow... tall. It always starts to struggle around now with the heat and the high sun and generally dry soil, and deteriorates from there. Can't do much about the trees robbing moisture/nutrients from below, but letting it grow higher cant hurt. I will cut it to 4" when I mow.

Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

There will be some heavy rainers pop up over the next day or so with the high pwats and decent cape, but with weak flow/shear they will probably pulse and die. There will likely be few haves and many have nots.

Need some of this. Getting into fringe drought territory again.

^wrong thread

HH bringing some relief from our mini heat wave.. and drought.

Easton jack.

92/70 Sultry.

Euro looks pretty wet across the region from mid week into the weekend, with multiple bouts of convection, frontal passage, then perhaps a low forming on the stalled front to the south heading into the weekend. Some 2-3"+ totals.

Congrats! So which one of you is going to make our pathetic MA snowfall map for last winter?