CAPE

The FV3, 3k NAM, RGEM and even the ICON are focusing much of the convection in extreme NE MD, N DE and SE PA with what looks to be the track of the MCV. Other storms fire to the south and southwest of that low, but more scattered.

Looking at the sounding here on the 3km NAM, that dry layer and the respectable low level lapse rates would seem to signal a damaging wind threat. DCAPE gets up over 900 for a time. Also some low level directional shear, thus a slight chance of a tornado. The most impressive parameter with this threat are the increasing wind speeds with height. The CAPE looks a tad skinny, but decent. My non-expert observations. Also predicting a fail for my yard.

Definitely not the same as last year for the coastal plain. I am over 5" for the month here but it seems dry. It has been pretty "normal" rainfall since May.

Regardless of what happens(or doesn't)today, the pattern for this weekend into next week will deliver some stellar weather. Probably doesn't get any better for early August as advertised. We will probably never see anything like this during winter.

Been 7 days with no rain here. Drought!

Interesting discussion from Mount Holly. Plenty of potential, lots of uncertainty. One of the more difficult warm season forecasts in recent memory for Thursday, with reasonable outcomes ranging from a largely uneventful day to a fairly high end severe weather event. Synoptically, northwest flow aloft continues. Surface low pressure is expected to track eastward through the Great Lakes in response to a southeastward digging shortwave propagating through the 50 to 60 kt 500 mb flow. Meanwhile, a convectively enhanced wave will likely dive southwest of us on Thursday. This wave will result from explosive convective development and likely derecho formation over the Midwest on Wednesday. This MCS/derecho will probably not be much of a factor for our region, either tracking southwest of us and/or not surviving this far in severe form. The SPC SWODY1 does extend a Marginal Risk into our Delmarva zones on the off chance it does make it all the way to the coast. This feature may also serve to deposit convective debris over our region, which would limit instability for new convection on Thursday. However, anvil level storm relative winds suggest this is unlikely, and that much of the convective debris will probably be shunted south of us. But the evolution of Wednesday`s convection and potential lingering debris and/or outflow boundaries will no doubt have some impact on Thursday. Another complicating factor is much of the guidance indicating fairly widespread but likely non-severe convection over our region on Thursday morning and early afternoon. This is likely in response to retreating high pressure, combined with surface convergence and increased low level moisture in response to a shift to southeasterly flow. This type of weakly forced convection is common in these regimes, and is a common failure mode for severe weather events. If early day convection is as widespread as much of the guidance indicates, I would be doubtful of the afternoon severe potential, especially in eastern portions of the area, even as the better forcing from the approaching mid-level jet and vorticity max arrives. With those caveats mentioned, the dynamics on Thursday are no doubt impressive, unlike any we`ve seen this year in terms of the potential overlap of instability, shear, and forcing if everything comes together right. 28.0z CAM guidance largely clobbers the region with severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening, but run-to- run consistency has been poor. Should several of those 0z CAM solutions (i.e. 3km NAM, ARW) and their associated forecast soundings come to pass, then a significant severe weather event with all severe hazards would be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Slight Risk of severe weather over much of the region.

Damn. Downsloping + UHI FTW? 86 here. High was 90.

Weekend into mid next week looks gorgeous. Unless you want rain. Beyond that the GEFS wants to build some WA ridging, but not sure it will result in anything more than typical late summer heat and humidity. For the BIG HEAT mongers, time is running out.

Its a loamy soil-sand/silt. I think the biggest issue is all the trees, but the soil and heat factor in too. It always does great from April into early June. The stuff I planted this time seems to holding up a tiny bit better, but in the end I will have to reseed most of it. Luckily I have reduced the area I care about to probably a quarter acre.

Mine dies. Gives up. Brown = thatch here. That isn't coming back. Doesn't correlate to dry/drought though.

The triggered Karen anti-mask routine is so 2020. Boring.

French roast with 2 shots of expresso is my go to.

N DE PUMMELED?

The original source I looked up was using data from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. It had Montgomery county at close to 70%. So a bit of disparity.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/covid-19-in-maryland-2/#map There are some semi-interesting/surprising results.

Just looked it up.. #2. Howard County - Population that is fully vaccinated: 68.6% (223,399 fully vaccinated) Montgomery county is number 1.

Did you take a poll? And without even looking I can guarantee you Howard county is in the top 5 in vaccination rate among MD counties. Uncanny how misinformed you are. I mean every post of yours is like this.

There is an area of D0 and a small area within that of D1 in west-central VA. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

Watch the chiggers. I immediately shower after mowing, as they are prevalent here. Not sure if they are even more active when conditions are dry.

Best chance looks like Thursday- Friday, but models currently have the action mostly just south. Some potential for a MCS with this set up, and the GFS is hinting at some sort of organized complex of storms moving in from the upper Midwest. Heads straight south on the next panel though and misses much of our region.

Gonna have to watch this trough dropping in from eastern Canada on the periphery of the strengthening/expanding upper ridge out west. Things could turn more active late week with h5 disturbances rolling through in the NW flow. No washout but definitely some storm chances. Have to watch the MCS potential. CMC kinda hinting.

Another fantastic morning. 59 here. Dews start to creep up a bit today, but still should be very nice for Late July.

Throw in a volcanic eruption or 2..

Gotcha. An integrated system. When you get to the point of adjusting the P, I, and D values, the general rules for temperature loops apply, and small scale systems tend to be pretty fast responding and easier to tune. Probably plenty of rules of thumb shared on the home brewing forums.

I would think this company would give you a simple procedure for setting the PID tuning parameters in the controllers for ideal temp control without overshoot and cycling. That stuff can get complicated, but knowing the size of the vessels, flow rates, sensor location, and heat transfer rates are what determine the correct tuning values.