CAPE

Flakes flying in Salisbury.

GFSX ens Control run has a similar look to the CFS depiction for early Jan with an amped ridge out west and a PV lobe dropping south. Euro Weeklies Control from Monday looks very similar too. Fun to look at, but still pretty far out. We just cant know.

29 Where's my snow?

Still trending lol. For most of us the forecast should probably be changed to mostly cloudy.

But how do you control all the jinxers on other forums and Twitter? I bet you hate when the dude calling the game says- and he hasn't missed an extra point in 312 attempts!

What's the general rule? 72 hours? That seems reasonable if there is good model agreement. Blame the GFS on this one lol. I won't bring up the NAM because it should always be ignored 3 days out.

Yes silly. Starting a thread "too early" has zero impact on what transpires. Starting a specific storm thread at least keeps the perpetual snow map posts from cluttering the main MR/LR thread.

For the superstitious, the bad mojo thread title didn't help.

It is logical though. There was no reason to start a thread because the King was not on board.

This potential SPV disruption and migration south of a PV lobe seems to be what the latest runs of the CFS are keying on for a rather sudden shift of the h5 pattern, resulting in a cold outbreak over the east the very end of Dec into early Jan.

I think he means the usual minor shifts back north that we tend to see on guidance as we approach game time. This is such a weak, strung out pos, the only possible trend from here is towards complete disappearance.

Might watch it snow on the Salisbury Uni webcam lol.

Latest extended GFS advertising some -NAO help at end of the month, which helps flatten the SE ridge. Been seeing some hints and lots of chatter about the possibility, but lets see if this idea shows up on LR ensemble guidance as we get closer. Would make some sense if the MJO continues to progress into the better phases.

From Mount Holly lol Welp. What had already been a multi-day southward trend in the frontal wave we`ve been tracking for Wednesday reached a crescendo overnight. The GFS and NAM essentially completed a cave to the EC solution, keeping the frontal wave very de-amplified and with nearly all of its meager precipitation shield missing south. What was already looking like a very minor event is now looking like essentially no event at all. PoPs, QPF, and Snow have been reduced accordingly. Some negligible (less than 0.5 inch) snow accumulation is still forecast, but it is definitely possible most areas won`t see measurable snow.

61 here.

The final motherload came down here today. One more major leaf blowing session then a final mow/mulch and should be done.

Guidance seems to be converging on a solid coating to an inch.

Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised.

Its been methodical and incremental for many runs now. The precip area has been getting lighter and shrinking in coverage run after run. Pretty impressive. Not like a sudden "cave". Still, it is now in line with most other guidance, outside of the Euro with its patch of flurries.

Mount Holly AFD for the 'event'.. On Tuesday night, the low will be strengthening offshore of the North Carolina coast, before lifting to the northeast through the day Wednesday, remaining offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The ECMWF remains the farthest east with the low as it passes by, while the rest of the model guidance tracks the low farther to the west. The greatest lift/moisture combination within the dendritic snow growth zone will remain on the northwest side of the low, which will track across most of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, as well as Delaware and eastern Maryland. We expect light precipitation to begin around or just before sunrise as a weak lead short wave moves into the area. Then as a stronger short wave approaches after sunrise, we expect the precipitation to spread across much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation across the I-95 corridor, south and eastward. The air above the surface is expected to be below freezing the entire time. However, as the precipitation begins to develop and spread across the area, some areas may warm up to near freezing or slightly above, before wet-bulbing back to freezing or below. So we expect mostly snow for most areas, although some rain may mix in if temperatures warm up above freezing, especially near the coast. QPF amounts are mostly one to two tenths or less across the area, and any snow that falls are expected to remain mostly around an inch or less, although some areas could approach 2 inches if temperatures stay cool enough during the event. The highest amounts are likely to remain across the I-95 corridor south and eastward, before dropping off near the coast.

Maybe just a touch. Probably negligible.

It is actually an improvement. Might be a dusting instead of virga.

Compare the location and strength of that vorticity lobe up north to the previous few runs of the GFS, and compare it to the latest Euro run. GFS is getting there.

GFS is incrementally trending souther and drier. Still the wettest solution ofc.