CAPE

0z Euro is also earlier and cleaner with phasing, and develops a sharper trough. Not as progressive, and that gives a low developing along the front more of a chance as the cold comes in. Maybe a bit of a trend here. CMC still not quite onboard.

And I didn't say I was rooting for a drought in winter, but somehow that was your take.

Early to mid March I would agree, at least in recent years. The end of March and into the second week of April.. maybe head to Canaan, or Maine.

You were talking like you get snow in your yard on the reg into the second week in April. The years I spent up there late March and early April were not at all memorable for winter weather. Ofc you might be the only one here who cares about a random wet snow shower at that point lol. I am sure the GFS will be there to tease you with the possibilities, maybe into May!

HH GFS with a sharper shortwave and a bit more in the way of snow as the cold comes in Saturday. GFS is 'noisy' the last several runs if nothing else.

They aren't very useful at range, and we sure don't need to see every d7-10 snow map from every op and ens run posted. That gets pretty tiresome. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think in the context of the Wed event, she meant that the snow maps verbatim aren't very useful with such marginal surface temps and likely low ratios. I made a post about that myself.

lol some of these Carroll county folks talk like they live in Maine. I lived there for 10 years plus and I remember one or 2 decent snow events in late March, and nothing significant comes to mind for April. Its a decent place for snow locally, but it ain't all that.

Dry isn't drought. Its relative. I don't want 4" of rain in March, and there are considerations other than snow. I had a great January here, so while I wont complain about some wet snow in the next couple weeks, it's not like something I live for. Rooting for big qpf going forward is rooting for rain, even in your yard. It's Spring dude.

Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder.

Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps?

I hope it stays dry for the next month. The water table has just broken the surface in my seasonal wetland- just a couple random shallow puddles. Easier to larvicide if it doesn't get too expansive.

Saturday looks like a wild day weather wise regardless. Warm, wind, maybe thunder, then sharp drop in temps. Maybe we can get some snow showers with the front but with the progressive look, any low that might form along the front as the cold comes in would probably end up too far east. That GFS run with the perfect phase and sharp negatively tilted trough would have done it, but it now looks similar to the Euro, although not quite as positively tilted.

Hope it came back quickly. GFS has fully caved, as we knew it would.

The Wed deal looks like classic snow tv. Very marginal low level temps and warm ground with no mechanism to bring colder air in at the surface other than elevation + rates. No one should be paying much attention snow maps as the ratios will probably be something like 5 or 6:1 for places where it manages to accumulate. The positive snow depth change map on the 3km NAM would probably be close to reality.

HH GFS looks just a tad different for next weekend lol. Almost a full cave to the Euro/CMC depiction.

Progressive flow continues to rule. Not expecting the GFS to score a coup here given its recent issues at range, but who knows. Sometimes everything does align and time perfectly. We definitely need a HL/NA atmospheric block up in here. Maybe next year, with a Nino.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD regarding Friday into the weekend.. A robust cold front approaching from the west is expected to pass through eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey around Saturday morning. The boundary will likely bring additional showers along with a sharp drop in temperatures. A drying trend and below normal temperatures are anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday. Doesn't seem like they are too concerned with the GFS idea, and to be fair it is not depicting a major snowstorm, but it is markedly colder/more wintry. Either way their thinking is some showers followed by a cold front, much like the Euro/CMC depiction.

In some species of mosquitoes the adults hibernate and survive winter, so a day or 2 in the 70s will likely bring them out.

The Euro and CMC(and their ensembles) are sticking with the warm-wet followed by cold-dry outcome for now. Check out the Euro vs the GFS for Sat afternoon. It is snowing moderately on the GFS here with falling temps verbatim, while the rain is pushing east and the cold front is about to move through on the Euro.

73 here. I see bugs.

A tad lol. GFS gets it done with fine precision- the timing, the dig, the tilt, and it leaves nothing behind. I'm confident that will work out.

12z Canadian, compared to the 12z GFS at h5..

The GFS is phasing the NS energy with the southern vorticity sooner, and leaving no energy behind, so the trough is sharp and goes neutral then slightly negative, which allows a surface low to form and and track up along the coast. The CMC and Euro don't have that clean interplay and the trough is broader and positively tilted, so any low that forms just gets shunted out. The GEFS is a little in between, but given the character/orientation of the trough and the location of the coastal low(offshore) depicted on the mean, it is leaning more progressive.

Some pretty good thunder here all of a sudden. Looks like a decent cell mostly just to the north. Getting a good downpour at the moment.