CAPE

WPC seems bullish for some decent rain along and especially east of I-95. Mount Holly has a half to three quarters here for tonight, so we shall see. Best chances for good soaking appear to be southeast of my yard.

If nothing else, that pesky mid level low is going to keep temps lower than they otherwise would be, as it delays the expansion of the Atlantic ridge into our area for a couple days. Mostly cloudy and low 80s today > than sunny and 90 for yard work.

Evaluation of good/bad winter in this region is very location dependent too. Last winter was great for Mount PSU, when temps could barely find a way to sneak below freezing despite the best HL pattern we have had in ages. 1000 feet vs 500 feet made a huge difference in outcome. Lots of cold rain here, and the snow that fell was 31-33 degree slop. Best period was Feb as far is it feeling wintry, but had more sleet/ice than snow. I never recorded a temp under 20 here for the entire winter, even with snow/sleet cover, clear skies, long nights, and no wind. That strong/extended Pac jet ruled and the one time the pattern did allow for some Arctic air in our source region, it dumped in the west and central US- typical of a La Nina, although the way it evolved was also just bad luck with the retrograding block and the TPV being forced west. That could have been a much snowier period for the MA. Instead the trough was to our west with a ridge along the east coast, thus the sleety/icy period. Considering where I live, and shifting climo, last winter was decent. Counting the sleet, was right about median for snowfall here.

July -13.17

We might be drinking, but what you smokin' wit dat shit?

Drinking a SOBO DIPA from Monument City. This is very good and exactly what I expect for this style of beer. I have had some mediocre/bland NE style 'juicy' IPAs this summer, and I was thinking I had lost the taste for them. Probably too many out there now and a lot just aren't very good. I also think they need to be consumed fresh- they don't age well.

12z Guidance is a bit more robust with rain chances for I-95 S&E later tomorrow with that low moving up along the coast.

I took the Cog. Relaxing, especially after drinking a couple NE IPAs before boarding.

Yeah looks like it will turn more active with storm chances by mid next week, and maybe a shot of severe by late week as a front approaches.

The upcoming period is looking more like the typical hot/humid stretches we have seen this summer, with temps in the low 90s. The 7 days of mid to upper 90s the GFS was advertising was just the GFS doing what it does. This makes EJ unhappy.

Mount Holly AFD- If you are a fan of summer, then have no fear. Summer makes a return to our area over the weekend and into early next week. The upper trough swings offshore by late Saturday night which should lead to some ridging across the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure sets up shop and puts us into a more summer- like regime. With southwest flow at the surface and up through the lower levels of the atmosphere, we will see both an increase in temperatures and dew points, leading to a bit more steamy airmass across the region. 850mb temps will rise into the upper teens to around 20 C through the first half of the week. This will translate into high temperatures back into lower 90s with some spots near or into the mid 90s by midweek. The kicker will be that the dew points will rise back into the lower to mid 70s as we progress through the week and this may allow for heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s for Monday through Wednesday. Heat headlines may be needed so this time frame will need to be closely monitored.

Upper ridge, Bermuda high. August in the MA. It's happening. [insert Ron Paul gif here]

Next 7 days. Dry. And heat. Drought comin'.

GFS thinks we are going to see some big heat. Mid to upper 90s Sunday through Thursday. Rain chances between now and mid next week look pretty low too.

As expected, nothing here from that line last night. I'm good with what fell yesterday.

He must be referring to all the gentrification.

0.44" total.

Ravens sign Justin Houston. Thought it would have happened sooner. Very solid pickup. Needed a legit edge rusher after losing Judon.

Decent steady rain here over the last hour and a half. Not going to make the half to three quarters that was forecast, but not like I am worried about saving a lawn or anything lol. 0.35" so far. Looks like it should probably end in the next 20 mins. I doubt that line that develops along the front later will make it here.

Yeah not fun.

GFS has a foot of rain for eastern NC over the next week.

Still a chance one of the waves moving up along the coast will track close enough for some heavy rain later in the week, but beyond that the humidity will be on the increase and temps will be creeping back up towards 90 by the weekend. WA ridge coming back.

Getting a decent shower here. Moving through quickly. Might get a tenth.

Heavy drizzle!

Unfortunately much of our region is betwixt and between- the upper level energy associated with the trough stays north, and weaker shortwaves moving along the boundary to our southeast will keep the best action down that way. Looks like there is some sort of a convergence zone setting up along the bay, so some areas are likely to get some decent rain today. Not expecting more than drizzle or a random shower here. Mesos look terrible for my yard.