CAPE

This snippet from Mount Holly AFD made me smile for some reason- Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch could also be in play for significant snow, even approaching metro Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is correct. But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the way in that direction at once; the current forecast already constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor the forecast today.

PSU is licking his chops. Brutal for west and north of dc Plenty of time.

SBY Jack

Im impressed dude. You nailed this 10 days ago when we had a severe se ridge It was probably desperation, the period had a good look, and there was nothing else to post about other than mjo, and strat shit. Sometimes we get too mired in the slump and keep looking too far ahead for something 'better'.

I will use the GFS as an example, as it appears to be kicking ass here. Back to the basics. The set up looks largely the same as when I first started posting about this window, and it is a favorable one. Cold air with sprawling HP to the west and north (note the absence of the dreaded GL low), low pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over Greenland. H5 is also reflective of the favorable look for snow in the MA. One flaw is the anomalous warmth we have in place just ahead of this potential event- but the cold push is legit, and as long as the shortwave is sharp and with a favorable pass to the south, and with all the features mentioned above in the 'right places' the solution the models seem to be converging on is reasonable. The expansion of the precip shield further NW into the colder air is not reflective of any significant shift in the low track, but rather a sharper shortwave and better timing. Overall a pretty classic look, and throw in that the -NAO is breaking down- not to say that this is going to be a KU type event.

This might be a forum divider- inverted.

Expansion of precip shield NW; snow bullseye the same.

Damn this thread is hopping. Ask and you receive multiple times. Snow starved weenies.

Looks like it might be a fun time in Rehoboth. DFH and snow.

This is the GFS we had known and loved and missed. Welcome back. -Ji

GFS and CMC. Canadians have 3-6" for the area just south and east of DC. The rest of those models are trash.

The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition.

The NAM knows.

The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region.

Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol.

12z EPS looks good. After the 12z suite, one would have to think confidence is growing for a low end moderate event for southeastern portions of the region, assuming low level temps cooperate. Still some room for adjustment NW of the significant precip but probably limited at this juncture.

Go ahead. I suck at starting threads lol.

lol we know that's not happening in the current regime.

psu wouldn't like this much.

I will be in Rehoboth tomorrow into Monday so might be in a decent place to see a little snow. Heading west into the mountains mid to late week so should be in a good spot there for the next potential event. My yard might very well get skunked and I won't care in the least.

GFS is hell bent on getting some decent snow in the area. Would be nice if it had support from like any other model though. 12z Euro run will be yuge.