CAPE

Yeah that may be increased depending on the next few model cycles. Their general thinking I believe is that the push of Arctic air will favor coastal development more southward/offshore.

I get what you are saying, but there are always multiple variables at play that factor in to the ultimate outcome. In this case it is more where the thermal boundary is located vs a more amped wave. The flow is relatively flat and west to east, and the vorticity is stretched out accordingly, underneath an upper level jet streak. Compare the vorticity on the 6z GFS and 6z Euro runs. No real dig in either case, and a subtle difference in the boundary location. For all practical purposes their outcomes are the same. In this situation the heavier snow(such that it will be) could be biased a bit NW or SE.

12 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 16. Clear skies, no wind, and snowpack.

A little lol. Other people still reply. I don't ignore, I just take a break when regulars get edgy and randomers show up.

Odd compliment. There is context to my post going back to last night. I think it's probably unlikely we see an amped wave in this situation with warning level snow. Everything looks progressive to me. Could be wrong. Go look at the members on the 0z EPS run.

Anyway I will bow out for awhile. It's that time of the winter.

You're an asshole as usual. Maybe read the thread before making dumb post.

And the heavier snow is south and east. @psuhoffman

A stronger piece of vorticity pops a surface low sooner/a bit closer to the coast.

EPS looks pretty good. Throwing out the CMC, this looks like a weak wave moving along an Arctic front with the potential to produce a quick hitting minor snow event, with legit cold coming in on the heels.

MV3

This logic seems silly. This is the best Euro run of the last 4. You mean if it was a bit further SE there wouldn't be that 4"+ 'jackpot'. Come on lol. That 4-5" area easily could be a bit further NW, or SE, depending on the exact location of the boundary, sharpness of the shortwave and associated dynamics. etc.

I'll take it. The last few runs are all "weak". This is not going to be a significant event. A little snow before the Arctic blast is fine.

DeCosta is so good lol

As it has been for the most part.

People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!! There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles.

High of 30. Currently 27. Still 95% snow cover in my wooded abode. Driving in the open areas there are some large bare spots in places mostly due to the perpetual wind thinning the snowpack, plus the sun doing its thing.

EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today.

6z GEFS for late next week

High of 32 early. Upper 20s late afternoon. Currently 23 at 6pm.

Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re

Shortwave digging

He is who we thought he was. Panics under pressure. Holds the ball too long. Makes poor decisions. Seeing ghosts. Lucky for the Vikings the last 2 games happened.

The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency.