CAPE

Predominantly white when I look out the window this morning. Some bare spots and thinning, but largely snow covered. Should be mostly gone in the next few days.

More notable southern low camp among the 6z GEFS members. 24 hr snow mean reflects this.

12 Ready for the brief warmup. Need a reset. Wash the salt encrusted jeep. Then more cold and snow.

Very Canadian like at h5.

Colder pattern gets established the first week of Feb with EPO going negative. Thermal boundary should be pressing southeast with potential for waves riding along it in the Feb 6-9 period. Looks pretty cold for the central/eastern US going forward.

For the Feb 2-3 storm the CMC continues to advertise a more wintry outcome for our region. It gets there initially by having less interaction/phasing between the ejecting southwest ULL and the trough digging south from the GoA, and secondly as the low tracks eastward there is significant northern stream vorticity digging southward in southern Canada that flattens/compresses the flow overtop, encouraging HP at the surface with the low tracking further south. Interestingly on the 0z GEFS there are a half dozen members that have a similar look to the CMC op with a track right over or south of our region and they have snow/mixed precip for the area. There are 2 others with a Miller B look.

HH GFS is actually an improvement with less interaction/phasing with the digging trough out west. The Southwest upper level energy escapes eastward a bit more vs being pulled north. Not much difference wrt sensible weather in our area, but the change is notable. Stronger HP overtop in southern Canada.

Ravens do too. They went young on the OL this season and there were some growing pains early, but it paid off for the most part. They might let Stanley go if they can get younger talent there next year. There is a reason they are a top 3 rushing team year after year. D-line is talented with a good mix of youth and vets, but will be an area they will try to upgrade in the draft with all the comp picks they have.

Philly was the only team that actually BEAT the Ravens this season. When they lose they almost always beat themselves. Ravens made a few mistakes in that game but the reason they lost is the Eagles dominated in the trenches- on offense and defense. When a team has both a physical and talented O-line and D-line, it covers up other weaknesses, and even there the Eagles don't have many. It really isn't so much about Hurts, but he does need to make a few plays in the passing game. I would be surprised if the Commanders can hold the Eagles under 200 yds rushing. But if their O-line can keep Daniels pretty clean, he can make some plays downfield, and the game is close in the 4th quarter, they will have a chance. They got the mojo right now.

Well, probably looking at 10 days of nothing interesting ahead, at least. Thread would be dead otherwise lol.

The worst matchup would be KC and Philly. We just saw that play out 2 years ago. Boring. I want the Bills to win, but If it ends up KC vs Washington I wouldn't hate it. Love to see them get there for a chance at a 3-peat and lose to an upstart team with a rookie QB.

Let em. Who cares. They do anyway. Anyone in the sports media who has any credibility would not use Daniel's early success as evidence Lamar has somehow underachieved. The reason they lost to KC at home last Jan and Buffalo last week are not solely on Lamar. Monkon, Harbaugh. Flowers, a rash of penalties, and last week mostly Andrews were big reasons. Lamar had 2 bad plays the whole game - a misread on an interception that amounted to a punt, and the fumble on a bad snap that he should have just fallen on, and Buffalo scored off that one. He was pretty much spectacular outside of those 2 plays. The Andrews fumble when the Ravens had all the momentum and were driving for a probable go ahead score was THE killer. Game changer. His drop on the 2 point try was bad, but that would have only tied the game. Allen would have had 1:30 and 2 timeouts to make a few plays and set up a game winning field goal.

Why would that be embarrassing? How about Daniels getting a ring before Allen or Burrow? Or Goff? Would that be embarrassing for them?

It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest.

A couple tweaks on the Canadian evolution(mostly a little stronger/further southwestward HP over southern Canada) and at least some of our region could see more sleet/snow.

If you expand out the view so the upstream trough near the GoA can be seen, might be a hint of less/later interaction as that trough digs southeastward. The Canadian has a different orientation wrt the WPO ridge and that trough, the trough isn't as deep and there is less interaction/ northward 'pull' on the ejecting shortwave energy.

I will be watching that shortwave energy up in Canada. With the antecedent HP over the eastern US exiting stage right as the storm approaches, we are going to need a flow of cold/dry air from the north given the low is not likely to take an ideal track to our south. Might get a Miller B deal though.

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

A feature to keep an eye on is the presence of shortwave energy in eastern Canada and associated confluence/convergence inducing HP at the surface. If that energy ends up stronger/digs a bit more there is the possibility of a stronger/souther HP in SE Canada. The 0z Canadian is the closest to a decent outcome for some of the region at this point.

10 this morning

Latest Euro Weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z ens run. This is actually a decently cold look with cold air delivery mechanism between the ridge over AK and the TPV. Plus the thermal boundary is very close by for shortwaves to traverse.

High of 27 after a low of 1. Didn't think it would make it to the forecast high of 31 today.

Looks like a good rain could be in the offing. At least with temps getting into the low 40s in a few days getting the hose out and washing the car will be possible. I'll probably do that Sunday.

The core of the cold air mass is on the way out. Last night was nearly perfect for radiating, enhanced by snow cover.

There is a signal for storminess on the latest GEFS and EURO ens runs in the Feb 1-4 window. A handful of members from each model have some frozen in our region. Still pretty far out in the LR, but not a particularly cold looking period on the mean at this point.