CAPE

ofc not. he needs the clicks.

Yeah I was a bit surprised by Mount Holly not keeping the forecast more generic here for now, given the unusual amount of uncertainty at this range and the clear trend across guidance for less impact. They should have at least waited until after the 0z suite imo. Big bust potential.

After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun.

Mount Holly is a tad bullish here- certainly more than I am. Friday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.

HH supports my earlier inclination to head to the beach. Couple inches in my yard, 6"+ down there.

One thing I have noticed mostly while looking at the means is the area of low pressure sitting there NE of Florida. Not paid much attention to it really, but the 18z NAM certainly did- seems to have suddenly made it integral to the development of the coastal low this run. I am just catching up so maybe this was mentioned, but seems like it completely lost it's mind here.

At least the 18z RGEM didn't shat the bed. Looks about the same as 12z.

Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.

If I go there will be. Probably has to be a legit chance for at least a half a foot for me to go, unless my yard looks to be completely missed or fringed.

Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.

Those days are over for me. Last time I lost any sleep model watching was 2016. Just do what makes you happy and generally disengage emotionally from stuff you have zero control over.

As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday.

This is what it is now. A tweak here or there, but in the end I expect there to be a light to moderate snow for the general area, with those pretty shades of pink on the Euro confined to the immediate coast or gone altogether.

I actually clicked on the chart and looked at it- he misconstrued something. Looks like only one site where the GFS was significantly more in error than the Euro. The rest were about equal, or slight errors one way or the other. Basically a wash.

Yeah same general idea as the op but less precip. And the GEFS has led the way on the trend for the more meaningful snow to be in SE VA. At this point I would expect them to be very close as we go forward.

Sure it was cool too. I don't expect either to verify verbatim though. The GFS might be a bit underdone/fast, but I think it is probably closer to what the outcome will be.

Well there is the NAMing for east of I-95. Now we can get back to the more reasonable outcomes.

Ground truth this run is very Euro like. Probably better.

Mount Holly headlines are informative, and keeping it pretty general for now. Expected given the uncertainty.

6z EPS is pretty much a hold from it's 0z run.

The Euro keeps dragging me in to more (unrealistic) expectations lol. I still think in the end 2-4", with a boom of 6 for my yard is reasonable given the set up. Tracking this potential storm has been interesting for me because I first started looking ahead to this window about 2 weeks ago when it started to become clear the MLK storm would be mostly a rainer here. In my mind the overall h5 look then heavily favored offshore tracking lows with the possibility of a coastal scraper that could be a bigger storm. My yard can do pretty well in these scenarios, or get fringed or even nothing. I got 5-6 inches here with the scrapers of both Jan of 17 and 18 (da bomb cyclone), but pretty much equal chances of fringe or getting a moderate event here in my experience with these kinds of storms. With this one I have always felt lower end warning criteria was a reasonable outcome. As things look right now, that is still achievable. And yes Mount Holly is generally excellent and detailed in their AFDs.