CAPE

He should probably stick to the snow maps.

It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol.

Snow lovers in Kentucky are hoping the NAM isn't on to something.

That was a great winter overall here, but that storm was a dud. Went from heavy snow to a driving rain like a switch flipped. Had 4" but I don't think there was much left at the end of the day.

Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly.

Next chance of something looks like late next week with a possible weak wave moving along/ahead of an Arctic boundary. Looks minor at this point, but both the GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe a quick shot of snow.

Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there. You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point.

Not ideal as depicted. The lows and highs are pretty much all in the wrong places up north.

More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands.

High of 25 here. Currently 17.

Must have been a brief snow shower here overnight. Skiff of snow on the deck and car. 20 currently.

For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so The 2 primary things to watch imo are the speed of the ocean low moving up towards the Maritimes, and timing/location that piece of energy dropping in over the ridge from Canada. Look at the position of that shortwave on the 6z GFS compared to a couple runs ago. It was acting like a kicker and on the latest run there is more spacing between it and the Maritimes low, allowing heights to build to our NE. It tries to partially phase, pulls the coastal further westward and it gains more latitude. Who knows if the GFS has the right idea here but it underscores the uncertainty.

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time.

Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.

Not even close.

I went back and dug that up a couple winters ago. Just epic. Instant classic, and maybe the best series of posts ever made here.

I only commented because I was looking through the panels on WB for that period and the p-type maps there indicate snow at that same time. I mean temps are 34-35 and the precip at that point is light so it really makes no sensible difference, but I have seen ptype 'disagreements' on TT compared to other sources before, so some interpretation probably with marginal surface temps. Imo people rely too much on those maps instead of looking at the temps through the column and qpf.

No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage.

Light rain with temps in the 40s wont take it all, with more cold right on the heels. I just felt like being dramatic and depressing for Ji.

Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again.

It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts! Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime.

Low of 16. Thought it would be closer to 10 given how well it radiates here with snow cover, but maybe the wind didn't diminish as fast as forecast.

We have a cold look now, so we are in the game. Without cold in place it rains in my yard 9 times out of 10. The period around MLK day still looks interesting. Beyond that who knows.