CAPE

Funny you should ask! I have this DFH 120 min IPA in the fridge and Friday HH is near..

I think he was just answering the question. If I were at his location and knowing he likes the big dogs and gets bored with the 2-4 deals the rest of us live for, I would be excited by today's op runs.

High so far here is 25. Thin layer of high clouds most of the day. Looks and feels like a snowstorm could possibly hit areas to our south.

Only time I like seeing an amped up wave to our SW is when we have a good look up top. More problematic here than further inland though.

GEFS has 1 or 2 members that remotely resemble the op. The majority that have a storm have it pretty far off the SE coast. There is something there during that period though.

I am mesmerized by animating 500 mb. Some crazy shit. Cool wave breaking, and the end result towards hour 300 is a -NAO and a 50-50 low with a storm approaching. Entertaining run for sure.

I'm not judging lol. Makes him happy/miserable.

As for the talked about pattern "flip" for Feb, this is still a pretty cold look for the first week, and it might offer some better chances with more of a gradient type pattern. The risk would be storm tracks to the north/west.

Between the energy coming in over the the top of the amplified ridge out west and the TPV sending lobes southward, the northern stream is a chaotic mess. This is a pattern that requires nearly perfect timing. The problem with Tues-Wed is we are in between vortex lobes as the ss wave approaches. So the coldest air has departed from the previous one and the next one is dropping down over the upper MW just as the southern wave is moving east underneath. There are 2 problems as depicted on the GFS- the flow is compressed in front of new trough dropping south which dampens the southern wave as it moves east, and we aren't very cold as we are 'in between' troughs. At this range guidance surely doesn't have the features and timing quite right, so we keep watching. I have no idea on the next one, other than it remains a window for something. The tendency overall in this (progressive) pattern is for low pressure to form offshore along the strong thermal boundary.

He lives for the op runs and the digital snow they depict.

Nah I gave this one up for dead. It can't pull me back in. If it can somehow get a few inches to Rehoboth I might consider hanging out at Dogfish, drinking a few beers and watch it snow.

Snow TV in Easton for the last hour or so. Coming down hard now but back edge isn't far.

Notoriously difficult to predict at range. The QBO is favorable but I believe the connection to HL blocking is nebulous, especially in isolation.

Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.

Cold. Mostly sunny though!

Don't worry it will be plenty cold by this evening.

Bipolar HRRR looks relatively decent at 0z for anyone who actually cares. I'm sure it will look shit in another hour.

43. Moon looks cool.

Not sure why y'all pay any mind to LR op runs. GEFS looks pretty cold next week. Moisture is yet to be determined. Looks like offshore low development is still favored in general.

Going with an inch max for my yard, given these anafrontal deals are precarious at best with cold chasing precip. Models tend to overdo the frozen. If there is some decent Fgen as some guidance is depicting, then maybe there is a chance for an 'overperformer' here.

Yes that will bring it back. Reverse jinx.

So this is THE storm now.