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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It is a touchy set up, and the pieces and the interactions shift run to run. I like to do analysis upstairs, but I have sort of zoomed out on this one. I take a quick look each cycle, compare it to the previous 2, then look at the ens mean. You get a feel for where things are 'trending'. I said this more than a week ago now- that the advertised h5 look on the means at that time for this period looked like one favoring coastal scrapers and maybe an offshore tracking bomb. Maybe this one is our bomb cyclone with a track a bit closer in. At this range, I still would not rule out some (unforeseen) piece of NS energy phasing in and pulling this right along the coast- good for you maybe not for me- although that would probably occur to the benefit of our friends to the NE in this case. Without much help in the NA the outcome largely comes down to timing.
  2. CAPE
    I get it, but we are still several days out. Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right with late/offshore surface development. I thought 6z looked pretty good.
  3. CAPE
    Nor this
  4. CAPE
    The 6z GFS was a good run at h5 imo. The human pendulums and emotional debs are the ones who obsess over op run surface maps in isolation.
  5. CAPE
    Some here should probably take Chill's advice and disengage. The required timing and intricate interactions between the key features to get a good outcome are on the table, but we are still several days out, and we just cannot know. This remains a period to watch, and nothing is resolved at this juncture. The ensembles continue to signal a miss wide right. It would be nice to see some improvement there over the next day or 2.
  6. CAPE
    Oh yeah, we have a signal. We are entering the 'inside day 7' window now, so we will get a better idea. The advertised high amplitude pattern gives us a better chance in a progressive flow regime.
  7. CAPE
    Here is the best panel on the mean. A handful of nice hits among the members but a lot are offshore.
  8. CAPE
    Lol worse than 12z but in this range i trust op more How well have the ops done during this window so far? The means have consistently advertised damped/flattened waves moving east and developed low pressure offshore. Remember yesterday?
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
    Lets see that the GEFS looks like. Means have been consistently offshore. The 6z ens mean looked the best I think.
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    So far the ens means are kicking the ass of the op runs for this window at range(no surprise). Damped waves and offshore coastal development/scrapers were/are favored, and so far that's what we are seeing. Hopefully we can get a change of fortune for late week. The outcome is so dependent on timing and subtle interactions in this regime that D7 op run pbp is more futile than usual lol.
  13. CAPE
    Lets see what HH GFS does. Watch the interaction between the shortwave energy riding over the top of the ridge and the vort lobes shedding off the TPV, as well as the western US ridge axis/ amplitude. The 6z run gave a nice path to victory, and 12z wasn't too far off.
  14. CAPE
    Wed into Thursday maybe.
  15. CAPE
    Temp has dropped 4 degrees in the last hour or so as the clouds have moved off. Currently 16.
  16. CAPE
    For the snow map peeps, this best captures that period. Differences in timing etc, among the individual members and a bit of digital snow prior.
  17. CAPE
    Better.
  18. CAPE
    It is a touchy setup with a cold HP in place but relaxing leading in, and no block/50-50. Need some degree of amplification, but not TOO much. The interaction with NS energy is critical. Don't want the southern shortwave to dampen in the wake of a vorticity lobe, but if one drops in just behind at the wrong time we may have a repeat of last weekend.
  19. CAPE
    The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties.
  20. CAPE
    I would lock in that evolution and track for my yard.
  21. CAPE
    Mount Holly's take this morning on the late week potential- The setup becomes fairly interesting by the end of the week, with the cold surface high retreating to our north and east downstream of a digging trough in the central U.S. This has potential to develop a surface low near or off the Southeast coast by the end of the week into the weekend, with cold air lingering in the Northeast poleward of the low. Of course, solutions by this point are widely varying, with the 00z ECMWF shifting the system well offshore (as opposed to the prior 12z ECMWF, which lifts a strong low right through the heart of the CWA next weekend). The CMC is weaker overall with the system, but farther west than the 00z ECMWF. The 00z GFS gives much of the area a healthy winter storm. Much too early to pick and choose a solution, with consensus suggesting the best chances for precipitation in our area just beyond the forecast period anyway.
  22. CAPE
    Progressive flow, and lots of NS action. 0z didn't quite work out(verbatim) for much of our area. The W US ridge axis is a tad too far east(and not as amped) as advertised, which doesn't help in this regime. With absolutely no blocking, placement and timing of the key features are critical. Ofc they are hard to identify specifically and change from run to run this far out. The NS energy dropping down the east side of the ridge helped NE on the 0z GFS run. Ops are gonna be chaotic for a few more days I think. The GEFS and EPS continue with the general idea of most of the action offshore for this period.
  23. CAPE
    Judah?
  24. CAPE
    Lol 500mb Maps translates into surface maps...500 mb will be as wrong as surface Maps 5 days out But you have zero clue or context looking at only surface panels. The upper levels dictate what happens at the surface, and subtle changes upstairs can make big differences. You know all this, but you still cant help yourself lol. Instant gratification seeking doesn't work too well in tracking storms.
  25. CAPE
    If you aren't posting maps it must be bad lol. I actually looked- there isn't much to say really. A sprinkle/snow shower maybe? Still time though!
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